Ukraine Russia Update: WMDs, Economics

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Soldiers prepare to destroy a ballistic missile at the former Soviet military rocket base in Vakulenchuk, Ukraine, 24 Dec 1997.

The US is not considering returning to Ukraine the nuclear weapons it gave up after the Soviet Union collapsed, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

A NYT article last month that said some unidentified Western officials had suggested US President Joe Biden could give Ukraine the arms before he leaves office.

“That is not under consideration, no. What we are doing is surging various conventional capacities to Ukraine so that they can effectively defend themselves and take the fight to the Russians, not [giving them] nuclear capability,” he told ABC.

Last week, Russia said the idea was “absolute insanity” and that preventing such a scenario was one of the reasons why Moscow sent troops into Ukraine.

Kiev inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union after its 1991 collapse, as it inherited Crimea, but gave up its atomic arsenal under a 1994 agreement (the Budapest Memorandum), in return for security assurances from Russia, the US, and Britain.

Former US President Bill Clinton has expressed regret about his role in persuading Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994. Mr. Clinton suggested that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if Kiev still had its nuclear deterrent. These security commitments were broken in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and further shattered when it began a wider war against Ukraine in Feb 2022.

Russia’s 2025 Budget: 35% for National Defense



President Vladimir Putin has approved a new, multiyear budget that sets defense spending for next year at record-high levels, signaling no let-up in Russia’s determination to defeat Ukraine.

The approved budget, which was published on the government’s main website on December 1, calls for 35.5 percent of all spending to be allocated for national defense in 2025. That’s up from a reported 28.3 precent this year. The $145 billion defense-related spending is at a level not seen since the Cold War.

The flood of government spending has caused the economy to wobble in recent months. Officials have steadily ratcheted up already high wages and benefits for volunteer soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a sign that recruiting efforts are growing more difficult as the war stretches on more than 32 months.

But that has resulted in labor shortages in many industries, driving up wages and prices. Prices for basic staples like potatoes or butter have skyrocketed in recent month. The unemployment rate has dropped to 2.4 percent

The central bank, meanwhile, has hiked interest rates to levels not seen in years, in a bid to cool down the economy. But that in turn has dampened real estate transactions — as mortgages become unaffordable — and prompted business leaders to grouse about the potential for bankruptcies.

The “Guns versus Butter” argument faced by Western democracies is not an issue for authoritarian regimes like Russia or North Korea and the common man continues to suffer with food insecurity and malnourishment. Iran has been cutting back on social services to help fund its defense against Israel, evidenced by the poor quality of food being served in their national universities.


Putin’s Hypersonic Missiles Not Invincible

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in a video address the day after the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile destroyed a target in Ukraine that his superweapon could not be intercepted:

There are “no means of countering such weapons today. Missiles attack targets at a speed of Mach 10, which is 2.5 to 3 kilometers per second. Air defense systems currently available in the world and missile defense systems being created by the Americans in Europe cannot intercept such missiles. It is impossible.”


The Oreshnik is a new, experimental intermediate-range missile derived from the RS-26 Rubezh ICBM. This hypersonic missile reached Mach 11 during its flight.

While hypersonic weapons present unique challenges to missile defense, experts and available evidence suggest that Putin’s claim is an exaggeration of the current technological realities.

Hypersonic missiles travel “at speeds greater than Mach 5” while maneuvering unpredictably, making them far more difficult to track and intercept than conventional ballistic missiles. Their speed and agility significantly cut the time defense systems have to respond, posing a serious challenge to current radar and sensor technologies.

However, describing interception as “impossible” ignores ongoing advancements in missile-defense technology. Systems such as the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense are designed to counter fast-moving threats, including some hypersonic missiles. While not foolproof, these systems are continually being upgraded to address evolving threats.

According to Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, the US and Israel possess anti-missile systems capable of shooting down an Oreshnik.

“Systems like SM-3 from Aegis or Aegis Ashore, as well as most likely Arrow 3 and THAAD, can absolutely deal with this type of threat,” Hoffmann told CNN on 22 Nov.

Several countries, including the US, are developing technologies specifically aimed at countering hypersonic threats. Key initiatives include:

a) The Glide Phase Interceptor being developed by Northrop Grumman in collaboration with Raytheon. These companies are working under contracts with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to create a system capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles during the glide phase of their trajectory, when they are most vulnerable.

b) Advanced radar systems such as the new generation Long-Range Discrimination Radar are designed to detect and track hypersonic weapons.

c) Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) are laser-based systems being explored as potential countermeasures for hypersonic threats.


DragonFire DEW fires during a trial by the UK MOD in Jan 2024. (Photo: UK MoD / Open Government License)


Despite Putin’s claim, Russia has not provided conclusive evidence that the Oreshnik missile is operationally deployed or that it has been tested in conditions replicating modern Western missile defense environments. So far, Russia has used Oreshnik once and against a country that does not have Western air defense systems capable of shooting down hypersonic missiles.

According to Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russian nuclear policy and strategic weapons, Moscow tends to exaggerate its capabilities and “itself may not actually know if air defense systems can intercept this [Oreshnik] missile. These claims remain unsubstantiated without tests or real combat attempts to shoot it down.”

Previous tests of Russian hypersonic weapons, such as the Avangard glide vehicle, have demonstrated capabilities but also faced skepticism regarding their real-world applicability and effectiveness.

Furthermore, the US and its allies have conducted successful interceptions of fast-moving targets in controlled environments. For example, tests of THAAD and Aegis systems have demonstrated their ability to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles, albeit inconsistently against hypersonic targets.

Putin’s statement fits a pattern of emphasizing Russia’s advanced military capabilities to assert strategic dominance and influence international perception. Previously, he made similar claims about the impossibility of intercepting other weapons systems, including the Sarmat ICBM and the Zircon hypersonic missile.

Despite Russian claims that the missile is on “combat alert,” the Sarmat has faced significant setbacks since its 2022 flight test, with four failed launches, the latest occurring on 21 Sep 2024.

The Zircon missile, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 9, is one the Kremlin’s fastest hypersonic weapons.


(Image courtesy of armyrecognition.com)

Nevertheless, when Russia launched two Zircon missiles at Kiev on 25 Mar, according to Ukrainian sources, both were intercepted by air defense systems.

Photographs of missile debris were later published. Systems like the Patriot and the SAMP/T can destroy the Zircon in its terminal phase, slowing to Mach 4.5, a view supported by Western analysts.

“The good news is that in missile warfare, especially dealing with Russian weapons, ‘claimed’ and ‘actual’ capabilities are often very different. … Is Zircon an undefeatable superweapon: NO. Is learning how to counter it difficult, YES,” Sharpe wrote 3 Apr 2024 in The Telegraph.

Sources:

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-will-not-return-nuclear-weapons-to-ukraine-/7883247.html

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-record-defense-military-budget-war/33222382.html

https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-claims-new-oreshnik-missile-is-unstoppable-sparking-doubts-/7877958.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/