The Largest Immigration Surge in U.S. History - 8 million net people over past four years

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/briefing/the-largest-immigration-surge-in-us-history.html

My colleagues and I worked with government officials and outside experts in recent weeks to analyze the magnitude of the recent immigration surge in the United States. We published the results of that analysis this morning.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll give you seven highlights, with help from charts by Albert Sun, a graphics editor at The Times.

1. The immigration surge since 2021 has been the largest in U.S. history, surpassing even the levels of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Total net migration — the number of people coming to the country minus the number leaving — will likely exceed eight million people over the past four years, government statistics suggest. That number includes both legal and illegal immigration.

Never before has annual net migration been close to two million for an extended period, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office.

2. Even after adjusting for today’s larger population, the surge is slightly larger than that during the peak years of Ellis Island traffic, when millions of Europeans came to the United States. This chart tells that story:



3. The share of the U.S. population born in another country has reached a record high as a result. That share hit 15.2 percent in the summer of 2023 (and continued rising over the past 18 months). The previous high of 14.8 percent occurred in 1890, and the share remained high for decades afterward.




6. The unprecedented scale of recent immigration helps explain why the issue played such a big role in the 2024 election. Polls showed that the sharp rise in immigration was unpopular with most Americans, especially among working-class voters, some of whom complained of strained social services, crowded schools and increased homelessness.

The issue appears to have been Kamala Harris’s second biggest vulnerability, after only the economy.

paywall free link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/briefing/the-largest-immigration-surge-in-us-history.html?unlocked_article_code=1.gk4.blAL.7EeNSXGd5n1R&smid=url-share

[doc03]

1. I live in rural east Ohio, I practically never saw a Hispanic person until we started

getting gas drilling people and pipeliners from down south about 10 or 12 years ago. Not that I see any
problem with them, but over the last several years I always see many when out in public. Just normal family
people with their kids at Walmart or wherever. But it drives the Red Hats crazy. With low population growth
we actually need more people working and paying taxes and SS to support our older population.

[dalton99a]

2. The housing crisis is caused by this new population pressure

Immigration is the reason for the resurgence of fascism in Europe

Democrats ignore this problem at their peril

[Lonestarblue]

3. Immigrants are not the sole cause of the housing shortage, but they contribute to it.

I don’t know what the solution is, but we cannot assimilate 2 million people crossing the border every year with nothing but the clothes they’re wearing. Even liberal cities like Boston and New York are getting blowback because they have too few resources to handle the cost of housing and feeding thousands of people. Democrats need to put some expert minds to work on how to get control of this issue.

[JI7]

11. I think it's a bit different in Europe as they let in a bunch of extremists

but in the US one thing is we need new houses being built but there are issues like NIMBY which make it difficult.

We also need regulations when it comes to short term rentals.

[meadowlander]

19. The housing crisis is caused by the mismatch between what people need and what developers want to build

because it makes them the most money.

Developers highest profit margins come from detached four bedroom suburban houses so that's what they've been building over all of the prime land for development that's easy to service with infrastructure. They know they can up-sell people who need (and potentially want) less.

The biggest growth in demand is for smaller households (single people, childless couples, empty nesters). When they don't have any feasible choices other than to buy more house than they need, it pushes up prices across the board.

Redeveloping existing suburbs later for more intensified housing is significantly more expensive that new greenfields development which is also getting more expensive because the farther and farther away from population centres it is the more expensive it is to provide infrastructure to support it (particularly water supply and sewage lines). And underlying land values are increasing as there is more demand to live in cities.

All the prime easy to develop land that hasn't already been developed has also been land banked for the capital gains. Also foreign investors, particularly shady Russian oligarchs, love using the US real estate market for money laundering. Lots of people have their retirement savings in real estate instead of the stock market which artificially inflates values. If you want to solve the housing crisis overnight, pass a law that says people can only own their own residence, a vacation home and one rental property max and don't let people who don't reside in the US own more than one or two properties here. Alternately, tax the shit out of people who own multiple properties until the incentives to do it disappear.

Those two million people coming across the border to pick oranges (and, let's be honest, build houses for less than minimum wage) aren't turning around and buying houses. Most of them aren't even renting - ending up homeless, couch surfing with relatives or sleeping in their car or tents or apartments crammed with fifteen people.

[travelingthrulife]

5. So this really has nothing to do with Harris or Biden. This is percentage of

population born elsewhere which means they may have come in decades earlier. They make it sound like these are people pouring over the border during Democrats time in office.

[Initech]

9. No, it's just the ramblings of a spiteful asshole and that stupid "news" network that he watches 24/7.

[GusBob]

6. My CT theory

When these folks are deported, they will be recruited by the cartels as mules and coyotes. The drug problem will explode

[Arazi]

8. Most drugs come in legally by Americans

Through legal ports of entry. I don’t think the cartels would risk new transport systems on illegal mules. No need

https://immigrationforum.org/article/illicit-fentanyl-and-drug-smuggling-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-an-overview/

[GusBob]

10. My point excactly

they are talking about deporting Americans or those immigrants who have been here so long they dont know the old country. but theu know their way around here

I dont think its legal to import meth and fenty, is that what you are saying?

[Arazi]

12. They're talking about deporting the American children

Of undocumented parents so they avoid the whole family separation fiasco again. Children won’t be used as drug mules.

Will some adult American citizens be swept up? No doubt but that’s going to be a massive battle that Marc Elias and Co are already prepping for. It’s why it’s already igniting such a shitstorm - those initial Americans will be prominently named and involved in international coverage/lawsuits. Not drug mule material imo

[Jacson6]

7. Shrug! Who Cares? I'm a descendant of immigrants from the 1700's

The more the merry. They will become Americanized and carry on the great tradition of America. We have to defend against the Balkanization of America.

IMHO!

[maxsolomon]

13. Obviously, Trump voters care.

Since this issue (and inflation) lost the election.

[JCMach1]

16. I prefer legal immigration though largely to preserve

Diversity in those coming.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. We have by far the best economy in the world

So people want to come here to be part of it.

[meadowlander]

17. Don't discount climate change effects.

[republianmushroom]

15. Going to be an interesting time ahead.

[BeerBarrelPolka]

18. I'm

I'm opposed to all illegal immigration. My question is, trump's guy is coming to Chicago. Is he going to roundup all the illegal Polish, Irish, Ukrainian, Russian, etc immigrants as well? There are plenty in the city and surrounding suburbs for sure.