The Liberal Patriot: The Democrats' Hispanic Voter Crash............ It's not as bad as you think--it's worse.

[Celerity]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-crash

It’s been widely noted that the Democrats fared very poorly with Hispanic voters in the November election. But I believe that the scale of the Democrats’ crash among Hispanic voters has not yet been fully processed nor the extent to which this crash undermines Democrats’ plans for the future. Let’s start by looking at some data on the scale of the Democratic Hispanic voter crash. Here are a dozen illustrative findings:

1. According to AP VoteCast data (the best data currently available), the national Democratic margin among Hispanics crashed by 16 points, from a 28-point advantage to just 12 points. This comes on top of another 16-point margin crash between 2016 to 2020, according to the gold standard Catalist data. Compare that to the overall national shift to the right across the entire time period, 2016-2024, which goes from Hillary Clinton’s 2-point advantage in 2016 to Trump’s point and a half margin in this election. That’s a total overall shift of just 3 and ½ points toward Trump, a shift that is simply dwarfed by the massive shift among Hispanics.

2. The Democratic margin among Hispanic working-class (non-college) voters declined by 18 points between 2020 and 2024. That is after a 19-point decline between 2016 and 2020, as measured by Catalist.

3. Hispanic men were a particular trouble spot for the Democrats this election. VoteCast data have the Democratic advantage dropping by 20 points in this election, down to a slender 1-point margin. But Hispanic women also shifted 14 points right in this election. And if you look back to the last election, the decline in Democratic margin between 2016 and 2020 among Hispanic women was actually twice as large (20 points) as it was among Hispanic men (10 points). So across the two elections, the decline in Democratic support among Hispanic men and women may have been quite similar.

snip

much more at the top link

These Philadelphia voters went for Donald Trump in bigger numbers than ever before. Trump increased his standing in the city’s white, working-class neighborhoods, and improved with Latinos, as well as both middle and working-class voters.

In Queens precincts that are 50-75 percent Hispanic the margin shift toward Trump is a whopping 36 points and in precincts that are more than 75 percent Hispanic the rightward shift since 2020 is an astonishing 48 points.

[CousinIT]

1. The men remain the biggest problem. N/t

[DinahMoeHum]

3. Let them learn the hard way. . .

. . .they will never ever be accepted as white.

[Mister Ed]

2. Gonna be a whole lotta finding out. n/t

[Trenzalore]

4. I have a friend who has a young cousin who is MAGA

I told him he really needs to have the honest talk about white people clamoring about immigrants. They don't care he was born here or his father served in the military. They view you the same as someone who just got here.

[Dave says]

10. We're both parents American citizens?

If not, and he is a person of color, I hope he can swim when Trump tosses the anchor (baby) into the sea. That *is* the plan.

[Sympthsical]

5. I see how our side talks about the community isn't going to change

We really have become a kind of "insistently learn nothing" space.

Then again, I saw people gleeful at the idea that Latinos might get deported to "teach them a lesson" so nothing really surprises me anymore.

Masks are delicate things and can fall off at the slightest misfortune.

[PeaceWave]

6. Most Hispanic voters are Catholic. Ignore their faith and you won't get their vote...

I don't know if the Party can deal with that fact. It seems like any time someone brings up any religion other than Islam, there's someone else saying something to the effect that "religion is make believe." You can't take that approach with Hispanic voters.

[Elessar Zappa]

7. It's not, for the most part,

Hispanic Catholics who voted Trump. It’s the new Hispanic evangelicals. Something like 80% of Hispanic evangelicals voted Trump, while only 35-40% of Hispanics did likewise. Hispanic Catholics support abortion and gay marriage in higher numbers than white voters. That’s why New Mexico is liberal, although more and more Hispanics here are converting to Evangelicalism moving us to the right some.

[SocialDemocrat61]

8. What Democratic party officials

said "religion is make believe"?

[DonCoquixote]

11. so

when the Catholics become so brazen in their support of the right wing that they even criticize the POPE, we are supposed to bow down, said as a FPROMER catholic.

[Kingofalldems]

12. That's a smear of Democrats.

[Dave says]

9. I know it's improper to say...

… but may it be a huge dose of FAFO for many of them that dived rightward since 2016.

(Sorry, I have no F’s to give anymore.)

[UTUSN]

13. Knr