From a Canadian: A Question. What happens if or when Trump's tariffs pay off for your country?

[LiberalLovinLug]

Trump has almost 4 years (at least). He is rapidly converting the government into a mafia style autocracy. Where he threatens law firms if they dare be a part of any litigation against him. Where he silences mews media companies with lawsuits if they dare report on him negatively. Where he muffles freedom of speech with deportation of protesters. And that’s just the start

But outside the country he is behaving the same way. Extortion and threats to smaller economies to fall in line or his “protection” fee will go up. And also may be reduced if they cooperate and submit.

IF he is allowed to continue…if SCOTUS has his back as well, It could very well work. In the end. Sure the US will have lost its friends. Lost all respect in the world. But, like a mob boss that is insulated from his crimes by a corrupt police and judiciary….because he has successfully put in charge his own stooges….he doesn’t care about his victims misery. Eventually the tariff money will come flooding in. Countries will only be relieved of part of the tariffs if they turn over certain resources rights to Trump in exchange. Also other countries businesses who cater to US consumers, will be forced to relocate to the US as the only way to survive the tariff war. I have already heard some Canadian companies say they will have to do just that.

So the US economy will potentially be booming before Trump finishes his second term. At the expense of its neighbours and former allies. And of course within your own country, at the expense of freedom of expression, and protest. Reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, union rights etc etc. With a cowed press and intimidated judiciary. Even the right to use the courts to stop him is gone as he openly defies them without consequence.

BUT…. The economy is booming. Trump starts getting in so much that he lowers all household taxes dramatically. He announces big mega projects…bridges, roads, high speed rail. Basically by stealing from other countries, plus money saved from radical cuts to social programs and public health and safety departments.

What I as a Canadian fear, is that it’s easy to protest Trump now. When milk and eggs are high priced. But how many Americans will have our backs if they start to feel positive results of his brutal plan? The benefits of living under the protection of their thieving godfather in the white house?

I think the Trump admin is so cocky now because they know that in politics a week is a long time let alone 4 years. And most people are greedy to one degree or another. What if by the time the mid terms arrive, the country is already starting to see the benefits of the US taking advantage of its economic power to squeeze and bankrupt other countries into submission?

Will even some here on DU sit back and say. “you know what? My 401k is soaring. I have more job security, plants are opening up, taxes are lower. Maybe other countries WERE ripping us off. Why should we listen to the whining of Canadians or other countries? America is Great Again!”

And I wonder sometimes if the Democratic party has a plan for this outcome. They seem to have put themselves into a reactionary position where its all about Trump’s latest scandal like the Signal debacle. Which is already old news and forgotten. The, dare I say, brilliance of the Trump team’s plan is that Democrats are being steered onto the role of defending other countries economies while Trump comes off prioritizing the US’s economy.

Going from the concept of “raising all boats” to shooting holes in other boats and robbing them as they sink. But if this ship flying the skull and bones flag comes back into harbour loaded with treasure, how many Americans will ignore the horror stories of how this treasure was gotten, and be mezmerized by the gold?

[Easterncedar]

1. Tariffs will break us, never fear

If he sticks with them. I hope the world stands up to his extortion and bullying.

[ananda]

16. True. Nothing good will come from tariffs.

And everything bad.

[Prairie Gates]

2. TL DR version: "What if Trump is right?"

He's not.

Fuckssake.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

3. I dont think the tariff plan will work

Some countries will cave. Others won't. Some businesses will move to the US to avoid tariffs, but many will not because they are not going to invest billions and years of getting factories up and running here, just for the rug to get pulled from under them when either trump rescinds the tariffs, Congress forces his hand, for Dems sweep 26 and 28 and undo them all.

But, if the scenario plays out like your post. The tariffs are a smashing success, the economy roars, etc, then I'm sad to say that the majority of Americans won't give a damn that it was happening to the detriment of other countries, including allies and former allies. Most Americans simply do not care about things outside of their bubble. If they are doing well financially and reaping the benefits of trumps policies, then they will not give a damn that it destroyed the economies of friends like Canada or the UK or anyone else.

[louis-t]

5. Even if there is some modicum of success with the tariffs

what will we have lost? Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the VA, our National Forests, clean water, safe food, safe medicine. I don't think we as a nation will gain much except a few billionaires who get a lot richer.

[paleotn]

11. And no matter what they do, cave, reshore, etc., etc., etc.,

Consumer prices will go up massively. It's fucking insanity.

[LiberalLovinLug]

17. This is what Trump is counting on.

I just see all this celebrating for Trump's big plan falling apart, when he is stressing short term pain for long term gain. And all of his chaos now will be long forgotten when the 'gain' kicks in.

What is the plan for if and when this happens by Trump foes who don't want Fascism as the price they pay?

[louis-t]

4. We had 4% unemployment. Where are they gonna find

people for all those millions of jobs they think they're going to create? They're kicking out tens of thousands of people. All of this is so totally unnecessary. And does anyone really think they're going to get some kind of bonus at the end of the day? A raise in pay? Lower taxes? The 1,000 people at the top of the wealth list will hoard most of it.

[paleotn]

12. A lot of those are really awful jobs Americans won't do.

Hell, we can't get Americans to pick fucking tomatoes.

[whathehell]

18. Nah..Americans will do any job

if you pay them an 'American' wage, an expectation to which they are entitled.

The problem is, too many employers want to own businesses in First World countries while paying their workers Third World wages.

[paleotn]

19. And you're willing to pay $15 per lb. for tomatoes.

I didn't think so.

Honestly....and this isn't a shot at you by any means... I find it amazing how little Americans understand production costs, pricing and why stuff retails for what it does. Strangely, they're more than happy to get bent over buying a new iphone, but god fucking forbid the price of eggs goes up 75 cents.

[edhopper]

6. What happens

when Scarlet Johanson asks me for a date? Hmm?

[republianmushroom]

7. Some damn good questions.

[GoreWon2000]

15. I suggest that you open a history book

and learn about the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that we such a disaster for both the U.S. and the world. Trade protectionism doesn't work.

[paleotn]

21. No, actually, they're not.

Ya know, this subject has been covered recently ad nauseam and by people far smarter than you and me, yet....yet! Thus, the more than slight rudeness in my response to the OP below.

[struggle4progress]

8. "We pirates are actually your good friends" will have limited appeal

[cloudbase]

9. I seriously doubt his program will work.

But, let's say it does. . .

It won't be worth the cost in lost international good will-an intangible asset, to be sure, but an asset all the same.
Difficult to amass, easy to squander.

[paleotn]

10. They're not going to pay off. That's fucking lunacy.

Last edited Sun Apr 6, 2025, 06:39 PM - Edit history (2)

Trump isn't "stealing" from other countries. He's stealing from American consumers. THEY are the ones paying the tariffs, not foreign producers or anyone else. To think otherwise at this point is just dumb. Importers pass on the additional costs to retail. No one is going to take that hit to their bottom line. And they don't have to because.......

Domestic producers, if there are any in some industries, will raise their prices too. And why not? Look at what happened to the laundry appliance market during jackass's first term. Domestic producers figured the increase in profits from raising their own prices was worth more than any additional market share gained from being more competitive on price. And the market itself shrank due to overall higher prices, since people simply kept their old washers and dryers longer since new ones were far more dear. With a 25% increase in your foreign competitors prices, why not do some of both? Raise your prices 10%, which is a huge increase in most industries, but you may still be a bit cheaper than your foreign competitor and can grab a bit more of whatever market share is left. At worst, you're just as price competitive as you were pre tariff.

Many industries simply can't be reshored without driving production costs through the roof, and retail prices along with them. Clothing for instance. $50 basic tee shirts anyone? It simply costs a hell of a lot more to make those things in the US, and Canada for that matter, than elsewhere.

These are usually labor intensive industries, where the jobs suck anyway. So why the hell would we want them back? Look at the hell that was US sewing plants even well into the 2nd half of the 20th century. Hard jobs that are hard on workers for crap pay. But even that crap pay is a hell of a lot more than someone in Bangladesh is willing to take. Because the same relative buying power goes further in Bangladesh. Really, the only way to make this successful is to lower US standards of living generally. Oh, that shit is going to go over well. And if you call THAT success, well....

And you think theoretical tax cuts will make up the difference in most American's budgets? That's laughable on its face! In the end, we're all made poorer. Even a lot of relatively rich Americans who's businesses depend on US consumer buying power. That buying power will be crippled.

It's' insanity. Just fucking fence post dumb insanity.

[thought crime]

22. Nice explanation, thanks!

As you mentioned, labor intensive industries suck. A return to manufacturing would require massive investment in automation, which will take several years to achieve at a level competitive with current offshore costs. In the meantime, a horrible economy.

I expect trump to back off quickly to some extremely stupid but less insane level of tariffs (maybe the penguins get a reprieve), but a lot of damage has already been done. It would be interesting to see the EU, Japan, Korea & China place a high tariff on commercial aircraft from the US, or at least threaten to do so.

[VMA131Marine]

13. "Eventually, the tariff money will come flooding in"

I reject your premise.

Tariffs are a tax on American consumers and a highly regressive one at that. Which means that even if tariffs generate enough income to eliminate the income tax completely (they won’t come close), the bottom 90% of households will still be worse off and the top 10% will make out like bandits as usual.

Furthermore, the “formula” Trump used to set his “reciprocal” tariff rates have no foundation in reality. All Trump has done is succeeded in creating market chaos. Most businesses don’t thrive under chaotic conditions because it’s impossible to plan for the future.

[LiberalLovinLug]

24. Not flooding into consumer's pockets. into Trump and his sycophants pockets

No one has talked about the difference between a free market arrangement where there may be limited small tariffs for specific industries on specific countries. Where in spite of some tariffs, as under Biden and Presidents before him, foreign companies could compete in the American market place. This is beneficial to American companies that rely on Canadian parts or resources. Or steel, or oil. More competition creates lower prices. So money saved from more competition, is passed on to the companies directly, both Canadian ones and American ones that take advantage of that.

If greater tariffs are set up, the new massive windfall of those tariff charges will not flow directly to the consumer, or the businesses, but funnelled through the Trump Crime Consortium. If you listened to Trumps campaign speeches, whenever some question came up about....say....women's reproductive services, his response was..."there's going to be so much money to do it all". That was his big plan. To commandeer that cash cow and be able to act as the merciful king doling out favour and fortune from the tariff account, to whomever kisses the ring with enough passion.

Of course he won't. He will spend it on himself, and dole it out as subsidies to his wealthy friends. I think that is the real grift of the tariffs. It will be a slush fund, to bribe, and rob the treasury, as the country burns.

[GoreWon2000]

14. History teaches tha tariffs don't work

I would suggest that you Google the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs. They were an economic disaster for both the U.S. and the world.

[delisen]

20. Trump hates us. He does not want Americans to live free and well.

Even if th tariff gambit were to work, which is highly unlikely, Trump will simply double down on quashing our freedoms and rights.

Trump desperately wants to hurt us. That is not going to change and our opposition to him and his greedy sadistic enablers will grow exponentially and quickly. I believe the battle will be won or lost in a matter of months.

As far as Canada is concerned there is no reservoir of anger or hatred of Canadians tha The Trumpers can draw on. There are no historical antecedents to be exploited.

Mexico is more likely to be victimized in that way.

[misanthrope]

25. The value of this post isn't whether tariffs work or fail

It is that a neighbor and long-standing ally no longer believes in the essential '"goodness" of the American citizenry.

[GreenWave]

26. The end game is shock the market with threats of tariffs. Then cash in over and over...

The threat of the wall. election cycles over and over...

etc.

[OAITW r.2.0]

27. Rec'd this thread for all of the great responses.

The consumer will help help pay for the taxcuts for the top 5% that you just know Trump's budgets will be proposing.

[pat_k]

28. Opposition to the 47 regime is about patriots defending

... the American commitment to the four freedoms and defending the rule of law and the decency and values that have driven us to strive for an evermore perfect union.

It is not about the economy. If by some bizarre turn of events they don't devastate the world economy, it matters not. I would rather live through a depression in a good nation of evolving law that reflects the collective will of the governed within the framework of our constitution than than live in prosperity in an immoral, lawless, oppressive, and evil nation.

Their intolerable assault on the American Constitutional order and destruction of every institution capable of manifesting the will of the American people cannot be allowed to stand.

When we focus too much on the economic fallout of what the 47 regime is doing, we risk missing the deep patriotism driving us. And we miss the opportunity to force a national reckoning on who we are as Americans and what we stand for.

[Bayard]

29. We will all die of shock......