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Bernardo de La Paz

(54,808 posts)
Wed Apr 9, 2025, 11:59 AM Apr 9

1930 is the model for the 2026 Blue Storm Surge

Hoover elected 1928.
Presided over market crash in 1929.
Signed Smoot-Hawley tariff tax June 1930.

Then November 1930 happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1930_United_States_elections

Senate: +8 Dem (35 contested, only 96 seats then)
House: +52 Dem
Governors: +7 Dem (33 contested)

Then November 1932 happened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_United_States_elections

President: FDR: 472 EV, Hoover 59. Popular vote margin: Dem +17.8%
Senate: +12 (compared to 1930)
House: +97 (compared to 1930)
Governors: +11 (compared to 1930, 35 contested)

Democrats need a 21st century FDR. RepubliConners have their Hoover (tRump for midterms, Vance for 2028).

4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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1930 is the model for the 2026 Blue Storm Surge (Original Post) Bernardo de La Paz Apr 9 OP
The internet willmake that more difficult. WhiteTara Apr 9 #1
Computerized gerrymandering makes that number aspirational JCMach1 Apr 9 #2
Could be, but 2018 Blue Wave did better than that and tRump is less popular now than 2018 Bernardo de La Paz Apr 9 #3
DCCC i know mentioned 33 races??? That are currently JCMach1 Apr 9 #4

WhiteTara

(30,703 posts)
1. The internet willmake that more difficult.
Wed Apr 9, 2025, 12:08 PM
Apr 9

The smears begin and don't stop the minute some democrat even dares to mention running for office.

JCMach1

(28,614 posts)
2. Computerized gerrymandering makes that number aspirational
Wed Apr 9, 2025, 12:27 PM
Apr 9

As well ... +10-30 is closer to historic norm midterms vs. unpopular president.

Bernardo de La Paz

(54,808 posts)
3. Could be, but 2018 Blue Wave did better than that and tRump is less popular now than 2018
Wed Apr 9, 2025, 01:23 PM
Apr 9

2018 I think had about the same gerrymander.

Senate: -2 Dem
House: +41 Dem
Governors: + 7 Dem

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_States_elections

JCMach1

(28,614 posts)
4. DCCC i know mentioned 33 races??? That are currently
Wed Apr 9, 2025, 01:33 PM
Apr 9

Under target which sounds about right. Waves tend to overtake beyond what you target anyway.

Working from memory , hence the question marks.

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