The unusual bets on Trump's war that have rung alarm bells
Unusual activity in prediction markets in the 24 hours leading up to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that decimated Iran’s leadership has cast an unsavoury spotlight on what are probably the world’s fastest-growing, and increasingly controversial, betting platforms.
A New York Times study of activity on the Polymarket predictions market platform found that 150 accounts, most of them newly created, placed more than $US850,000 ($1.2 million) of bets last Friday that there would be a strike by Saturday.
Another, by the Financial Times, found that 12 Polymarket accounts, mostly opened within days before the assault, bet $US66,993 that there would be an attack by Saturday. About half the bets were made in the six hours before the strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of his leadership team.
There was a similar plunge on the other big predictions market, Kalshi, which caused outrage among its punters because it subsequently froze its trades and reimbursed punters for their bets and any losses because, it said, it doesn’t allow transactions directly tied to deaths.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/the-unusual-bets-on-trump-s-war-that-have-rung-alarm-bells-20260305-p5o7ng.html
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