What does Europe do, for instance, now that it faces hostile and aggressive great powers on both its eastern and western flanks? Not only Russia, but now the United States, too, threaten the security and territorial integrity of European states and work to undermine their liberal governments. A passive Europe could become a collection of fiefdoms—some under Russian influence, some under American influence, some perhaps under Chinese influence—its states’ sovereignty curtailed and its economies plundered by one or more of the three empires. Will the once-great European nations surrender to this fate?
If history is any guide, they will choose rearmament instead. The task will be monumental. To mount a plausible defense against further Russian territorial aggression while also deterring American aggression will require not just marginal increases in defense spending but a full-scale strategic and economic reorientation toward self-reliance—a restructuring of European industries, economies, and societies. But if Germany, Britain, France, and Poland all armed themselves to the full extent of their capacity, including with nuclear weapons, and decided to forcefully defend their economic independence, they would collectively wield sufficient power to both deter Russia and cause an American president to think twice before bullying them. If the alternative is subjugation, Europeans could well rise to such a challenge.
Asian partners of the United States will face a similar choice. Japanese leaders have been questioning American reliability for some time, but Trump’s posture forces the issue. He has imposed tariffs on America’s Asian allies and repeatedly suggested that they should pay the United States for their protection (“no different than an insurance company”). Trump’s National Security Strategy focuses intensely on the Western Hemisphere, at the expense of Asia, and the administration ardently desires a trade deal and strategic coordination with Beijing. Japan may need to choose between accepting subservience to China and building up the military capacity necessary for independent deterrence.
The recent election of a right-wing-nationalist prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggests which of these courses the Japanese intend to take. Trump and his advisers may imagine that they see fellow travelers seeking to “Make Japan Great Again,” but the upsurge of Japanese nationalism is a direct response to legitimate fears that Japan can no longer rely on the United States for its defense. South Korea and Australia, too, are reconsidering their defense and economic policies as they wake up to challenges from both East and West.
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