Fifth La Nina in Six Years to Disrupt Crops and Supply Chains

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Bloomberg

December 14, 2025 at 2:33 PM EST

Deadly flooding in Asia and early snowstorms across the US are signaling the return of a weather-roiling La Niña, a cooling of Pacific waters that can disrupt economies and trigger disasters worldwide.

In recent La Niña years, global losses have ranged from $258 billion to $329 billion, according to Aon, a reinsurance broker and data analysis firm. Despite year-to-year swings in damage totals, the overall trajectory is unmistakable: Extreme weather is pushing losses higher. The La Niña phenomenon is often linked with droughts in California, Argentina and Brazil, and the destructive flooding that recently swept Southeast Asia. These types of catastrophes have become a larger factor in setting terms for insurers, farmers and energy providers.

La Niña can intensify both droughts and downpours, fuel more active storms across the tropical Pacific and strengthen Atlantic hurricanes. During past episodes, the pattern may have helped drive the Los Angeles fires in January and Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 250 people across the southern US in 2024. Not every extreme event can be tied directly to La Niña, but scientists say the fingerprints are familiar.

“La Niña is like a traffic cop in the middle of rush hour, aiding the flow of cars or weather systems in certain preferred directions,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the US Climate Prediction Center. She has also likened it to “the conductor of a weather symphony” or an American football quarterback calling plays. Even though La Niña tends to follow a general pattern, L’Heureux points out that each event is different and other factors can influence the ultimate outcome. La Niña doesn’t typically have a major influence on weather in Europe, L’Heureux said.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-14/fifth-la-nina-in-six-years-to-disrupt-crops-and-supply-chains?srnd=homepage-americas

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[progree]

1. Oh no, La Nina means polar vortexes shifting south in the Midwest, more snow

Last edited Mon Dec 15, 2025, 07:21 AM - Edit history (2)

The last 2 weeks have been snowy snowy and bitter cold, like day time minus 20 windchill.

Fortunately we (Minneapolis) are on a definite warming trend starting now, Monday morning. Wind chill PLUS 16 at noon.

Tuesday it gets like hotter than hell, high of 41 deg F (regular thermometer temperature).

Wednesday, Thursday almost the same as Tuesday

--and then--

Friday: windchill MINUS 8 at noon.

Not much precip during the week, good..

I fell in deep snow a couple times on the 9th carrying a ton of groceries home (part of my exercise routine) and risking taking a shortcut, so am glad to see some of the snow melt. The biggest issue of falling down is having stuff come out of my pockets. That's happened before, but fortunately not this time. It would have been sheer heck finding some important lost item(s) in the deep snow.

ETA - I just noticed that sunset arrives later today, 4:32 PM, up from 4:31 PM for the last several days, which was the seasonal earliest sunset time. Yeah! more daylight in the evening at last.

Note the shortest day is, as always, the Solstice day, this year Dec 21.

Sunrises keep getting later and later until about January 2.

I don't know why, I think it has to do with earth's elliptical orbit.

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun

[BumRushDaShow]

2. As a weather hobbyist

what happens with the PV is that it can break apart and spin off "lobes" of cold air into various regions around the world, and can also undergo what is called a "SSW" ( "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" ), which can also help break off pieces.

Here is a long-range forecast article from September (9/12/25), about what is happening right now - Polar Vortex breaks apart, sends frigid Arctic cold across Canada and the U.S.

(the article also includes a summary of what the PV is and the dynamics of it)

I like that site for predictions of SSWs as well.

Sunrises keep getting later and later until about January 2.

I don't know why, I think it has to do with earth's elliptical orbit.

It's related to the Earth's tilt (archived from the now-purged "climate.gov" )

[progree]

3. All's I see at this link is this --

https://www.climate.gov/teaching/literacy/1-c-axial-tilt-earth-governs-incoming-sunlight-and-seasonality

1 c Axial tilt of Earth governs incoming sunlight and seasonality
c. The tilt of Earth's axis relative to its orbit around the sun results in predictable changes in the duration of daylight and the amount of sunlight received at any latitude throughout a year. These changes cause the annual cycle of seasons and associated temperature changes.

I know from 3rd grade science why we have summer and winter and so on because of the earth's tilt -- during the summer the northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun; and the opposite at the other side of the orbit where the southern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun.

But why sunsets start getting later around Dec 9, and why sunrises start getting earlier after about Jan 2 (while the shortest day is the Dec 21 solstice), I haven't really understood that. I've looked up explanations that are really complicated and involved some "Equation of Time" or something like that. I figure it ultimately boils down to that the orbit is elliptical rather than circular.

Gotta run - this AM is my grocery trip. Tomorrow would be better, but that's Jobs Report day, and I want to be around to snuff out all the misinformation about "it's Christmas hires" (no, they are seasonally adjusted for that already) and "they don't count people who have exhausted their benefits" (the unemployment rate is not a count of people collecting unemployment insurance benefits, but a household survey) and so on. Or that Powell said the numbers are being fudged (no he did not, but he did say they believe the methodology is overestimating by about 60k/month, problems with the birth-death model mostly, a problem that has been getting worse for years, not just since Krasnov, I read the press conference in its entirety), or that according to Challenger Gray & Christmas, a net of 1.1 million jobs were lost in 2025 (no, that's just the layoffs part of it, and furthermore, those are ANNOUNCED layoffs, not actual layoffs. It doesn't include hires, announced or actual), etc. etc.

I'd provide links for all of the above (they aren't just my opinions), but gotta "saddle up" right now in order to catch the bus

[Igel]

4. Equation of time.

https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/equation-of-time.html

Want the math? ("Just say no.&quot Then there's a nifty Wiki article on it.

Always annoys my astro students when they come back to the classroom in early January and say that the days will be getting longer so sunrise will be earlier. (Currently it's way into first period and if I work too late I arrive in the dark and leave in the dark.) I disabuse them of the idea.

Basically, the time of solar noon (when the sun's at meridian) shifts earlier or later, predictably, during the year. Obliquity (tilt) and eccentricity ('how elliptical') blend together. Currently, it's shifting to later than clock 'noon'.