Russia preparing possible 'provocation' in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

[highplainsdem]

Source: Guardian

Two countries on Nato’s eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible “provocation” in the Baltic states or Poland in an effort to test the cohesion of the western military alliance.

Western sources also fear there could be danger on the horizon because the Kremlin is coming under pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg.

On Monday, Latvian intelligence said: “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” However, it would be well short of a full scale attack.

A senior political source from a second Nato member made a similar statement last week. They said “we are picking up intelligence” that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland

[Eliot Rosewater]

1. Right on schedule, American troops will fight alongside Russian troops to invade Europe soon

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

12. Yup, right on schedule!

[BidenRocks]

14. I thought the same.

[msongs]

2. ruskies are failing in ukraine why would they add more combat?

[Rhiannon12866]

3. That was my first thought, too

My maternal grandmother emigrated to the U.S. at 15 to escape Russian occupied Poland.

[Martin68]

19. A "provocation" does not mean "combat."

[sprinkleeninow]

5. "because"....

[DFW]

7. They won't, not soon, anyway.

Putin just wants to know what he can get away with. After his catastrophic miscalculation with the Ukraine, he wants to stir unrest to the extent he can, but not a shooting war. Russian troops could overrun Estonia in a day. Putin wants desperately to know what we would do about it. Under Biden or Obama, he would have started World War III. With Trump, he isn’t totally convinced he’d suffer severe consequences, especially when Trump is advised by the likes of Rubio, Hegseth and Kushner. Putin surely sees that the odds are low that we’d shrug our shoulders and say, “oh, well,” but he also knows that with the current Republicans in power, his chances are better than with a President Mark Kelly or a President Buttigieg.

[Igel]

22. Iran's attacks on some Gulf states didn't make them

all that averse to a deal in which they get to pay tribute to the new Persian Iranian empire.

Make it clear that NATO states will suffer unless they stop supporting Ukraine. Then there's Putin's xenophobic/grievance-centered "we're at war with all of NATO" trope.

[cstanleytech]

4. Assuming Putin and whoever else supports the idea doesn't suffer from falling out a window.

[DFW]

8. If his top military brass is against it, and he orders it anyway

His chances of his next flight being solo out of a tenth story window improve dramatically. I’m sure his Ukrainian adventure has freaked them out as it is.

[dave99]

6. looks as if Moscow will a history book item of 'What once was'

[Figarosmom]

9. I doubt he's afraid the US will stop him

Besides trump being all in with putin. It has been shown that trump and the war guy don't know what they are doing and have no idea how to command a war campaign. Just plain incompetent.

[C Moon]

10. When is satan going to call home his play buddies putin and trump?

[fujiyamasan]

11. They want to test their defenses

Similar to what Israel (and the US) did last summer with Iran.

Putin needs to get a more concrete check on NATO unity. I don’t think he needs another shooting war. It’s not just about Trump either, but European states as well. He’ll probably wait until Starmer is gone, because he’s been clear on where he stands in the conflict. There’s been remarkable unity and continuity so far between parties in the UK with regards to Ukraine. I’m sure the next Labor PM will follow through. But if somehow Farage comes to power…say due to a snap election or something…

Putin also knows Europe is hurting from high gas prices and needs to test their resolve. It will likely be calculated and more provactive than actual kinetic damage.

[JoseBalow]

13. Xi is squandering his opportunity to move on Lake Baikal

"the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." ― Sun Tzu

[Bayard]

15. Ukraine is already kicking his ass,

Maybe he's looking for easier pickings. Ukraine should start sending their mighty drones to the Baltic now.

Poland is a member of NATO. He would be very stupid to butt in there.

[purr-rat beauty]

16. I fear a tactical nuke

Would be used first on Ukraine

Seeing putin is wasting away his military assets, nukes will be what's left on the shelf.

If he attacks a NATO member, Moscow will be destroyed by drones. He should take Ukraine's demonstration to heart.

Sadly, escalation into a nuclear war is so frighteningly possible.

[ananda]

17. All of these countries belong to NATO.

When push comes to shove, I think Putin
has gone insane desperately wanting to
recreate that power rush he got in the
first part of the Ukraine War.

It won't work.

[ChicagoTeamster]

18. They should respond with long range cruise missile strikes to take out any rail tunnels or bridges they can hit

and coordinate with Ukraine to mark targets off their list. And maybe also target other oil or electrical power infrastructure with drones and also hit any subs they can find in the Baltic sea or North Atlantic or any strategic bombers they can find sitting out.

[Wicked Blue]

20. Desperate acts of a desperate dictator

He's trying to distract from Ukraine's ass-kicking.

[KPN]

21. Putin's arc has reached it's peak and is begun it's bend downward -- hopefully steeply.