Ohio - Cuyahoga County Early Vote Comparison to 2016

[tmaynardr]

There is some really positive news for Ohio if you look at the number of early voting from Democrats and Independents. I have made these charts to visually demonstrate the differences between 2020 and 2016.

Some historical reference is also helpful:

2008 Cuyahoga County
Obama: 458,204
McCain: 199,864
Difference: 258,340

2012
Obama: 447,254
Romney: 190,656
Difference: 256,598

2016:
Clinton: 398,276
Trump: 184,212
Difference: 214,064

As with most elections, democrats do better as the total number of vote increases. Cuyahoga County has 888,873 registered voters. As of this morning, the number of early votes totals 320,175, with the breakdown as follows:

Democratic: 140,388
Independent: 145,055
Republican: 34,488

The question every seems to be asking is why are there so many independent voters? Are they voting to keep things the same? Do they regret not voting in 2016? If there is a large democratic leaning among these independent voters, Ohio will go for Biden. There will also be a lot of down-ballot races that go blue. If Cuyahoga County is a bell-weather for Ohio, then the early voting data is definitely great news for the state of Ohio going blue.

Thoughts?

[beachbumbob]

1. under 30yr old voters register as independents

[DLCWIdem]

2. I have no party affiliation nor does my sister but we vote

BLUE Biden!Harris 2020

[Thekaspervote]

3. Cuyahoga county is Cleveland..heavily democratic and yes the most populous area

The rest of the state minus Cincinnati and Columbus, not so much..sure hope it goes blue!

[Buckeye_Democrat]

5. Dayton (Montgomery County) is usually blue...

... but Trump won it by about 1% last time.

[tmaynardr]

6. Clinton in Ohio

In 2016, Clinton won only 8 of Ohio's 88 counties. You read that correctly, she lost 80 counties. What really hurt her was the independent voters did not turn out.

Compare to 2020, independent voters are showing up en masse. A conservative estimate in Cuyahoga County is that 65% of independent voters cast a ballot for the democratic candidate. If that % holds true in this election, Cuyahoga County will deliver an additional 50,000-100,000 votes in favor of the democratic candidate. If the other urban areas of the state also have an increase independent turnout, Ohio will turn blue.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

4. I'm registered as no-party in Ohio, but vote blue.

I used to think that I was unusual, but looked at the party affiliations in Montgomery County OH (Dayton) a few weeks ago and learned no-party is by FAR more common here than being registered to a party.

I did it long ago because I didn't want nosey people at workplaces to get an idea of how I vote. It's easy to look up that information online in Ohio.

[liberal N proud]

7. In Ohio is those so called Independents that are scary

It would be good to have a feel for that group.

They are why Ohio is a flip-flop state

[No Vested Interest]

8. They are more correctly called "unaffiliated", not independents.

Last edited Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:18 AM - Edit history (1)

"Unaffiliated" in Ohio means that they have not voted in a party primary in the last several years. (Perhaps 4yrs, but I'm not positive.)
They may be newly registered voters, or those who just came of voting age, or issue-only voters.