With Oregon governor's race fragmenting voter blocs, Betsy Johnson has a challenge

[TexasTowelie]

The now-former state senator must peel off Democratic votes to have chance for a win


Most of the discussion around former state Senator Betsy Johnson’s independent entry into the 2022 Oregon governor’s race concerns whether she might be a spoiler for the Democrats or maybe herself a winner of the race.

In evaluating that, the question to ask will be: How persuasive is she?

Start with the prospect that the Democratic state senator from Scappoose might win, which is not unreasonable. Neither major party is especially popular in Oregon; the number of Oregon voters registering neither red nor blue is unusually large.

Oregon has chosen an independent governor before, in 1930: Julius Meier (of Meier and Frank fame). No Oregon indies since have come close, though one or two arguably were spoilers in battles of the major parties.

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Might circumstances help Johnson?

Oregon’s political wild card is the Independent Party of Oregon. Positioned as a home for disaffected Democrats and Republicans, it has in the past decade gained at times more than 100,000 members, scattered remarkably evenly around the state. So far it apparently has not been a major factor in top-ballot races. Could it be if – as may happen – the Independent Party backs Johnson?

Read more: https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2021/12/16/with-oregon-governors-race-fragmenting-voter-blocs-betsy-johnson-has-a-challenge/