Pennsylvania
Related: About this forumThe Mastriano Pileup in the Pennsylvania Elections - WSJ Editorial
President Trump won the Republican primary in 2016 by taking roughly a third of the vote, while his squabbling opponents from the traditional GOP split the rest. Next week Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano might pull off the same trick in the primary for Governor, and Democrats couldnt be happier to help him do it.
Mr. Mastriano is a long shot in November. Hes a 2020 stolen-election theorist who wants to end Pennsylvanias contracts with compromised voting machine companies. He reportedly organized buses to take people to Mr. Trumps rally on Jan. 6, 2021. Although he said he left when the rioting began, the Philadelphia Inquirer says video appears to show Mastriano and his wife walking through breached police barricades. Last month he spoke at an event featuring QAnon nonsense.
A poll by Fox News last week put Mr. Mastriano at 29% support among Republican primary voters. Thats a plurality only because below him theres an eight-car pileup. Former Rep. Lou Barletta was at 17%, former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain at 13%, businessman Dave White at 11%, and state Senate leader Jake Corman at 5%. Four others were in single digits. GOP bigwigs are now frantically trying to unite those factions by getting unviable candidates to drop out and endorse a consensus pick.
This will probably work about as well as it did in 2016 against Mr. Trump, which is to say, it wont. Its hard for any candidate to throw in the towel after putting in months of sweat and asking donors to contribute. Mr. Barletta is in second, so hes unlikely to quit. Mr. McSwain is anti-endorsed by Mr. Trump, who called the former U.S. Attorney a coward for doing absolutely nothing on voter fraud. Bill McSwain is staying in the race, his team said Tuesday. Mr. White has invested millions of his own money, which might be sunk cost, but he understandably wants to get to primary day. Mr. Corman is scheduled Thursday to join Mr. Barletta for a major announcement, but even if he tries to shift all his support, its only 5%, not enough to make the difference on its own.
(snip)
If Republicans go for it, Tuesdays primary could be the start of another Trumpian backfire. Pennsylvania Republicans want voting reforms, and the GOP state Legislature passed some that were promptly vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. If primary voters want those bills signed, their job is to pick a conservative who can win the general election. A recent poll by Osage Research said Pennsylvania swing voters preferred a Republican Governor, 42% to 39%. But asked about a race between (likely Democratic nominee Attorney General) Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Mastriano, the Democrat was up 49% to 41%. The pollster said it involved Mastriano losing an astounding 23% of the swing Republicans to Shapiro. With Mr. Mastriano at the top of the ticket, many Republicans fear a washout could also cost them control of the Legislature or the crucial Senate seat now held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is retiring.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-doug-mastriano-pileup-in-pennsylvania-governor-election-republicans-democrats-donald-trump-11652301140 (subscription)
bucolic_frolic
(47,316 posts)Shapiro is a bright guy with a great platform, and he thinks quickly on his feet. But he can appear to have an air of smugness, and thinks most voters can be convinced of the sanity of his ideas. I think he needs to move to the center a tad. Two progressives - Fetterman and Shapiro - could be more than dim-witted PA voters can tolerate.
BumRushDaShow
(143,456 posts)I think his "personality" is more reflective of the peak GenXers coming into their own finally, and he can't be accused of not being "law and order" because of his many public appearances on that front, including taking the lead when the times called for it (which is what he should be doing as AG but which previous AGs have rarely "promoted themselves" as doing) and even prosecuting those in our party who needed to be prosecuted for wrong-doing.
I.e., he didn't just use the position as a stepping stone (which many do), he actually did the work and has something to show for it.
Our previous AGs here have been a panoply of stasis.
When he won that position in 2020 after Democrats lost the other top-of-the-ticket races for Auditor General and State Treasurer, it established that even in that toxic, highly-partisan environment with ticket-splitting among the indies, he was able to hold his own.
blue neen
(12,428 posts)Shapiro has really earned my respect for the great work he's done. He'll be a smart and savvy governor, IMHO.
BumRushDaShow
(143,456 posts)when he ran for the position, he actually got more votes than the Presidential candidates!
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2016
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And I read an article in the Inquirer yesterday where there was this -
by Andrew Seidman and Chris Brennan
Updated May 20, 2022
(snip)
As the GOP turns its focus toward the general election against Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro, Republicans are also trying to assess what went wrong over the last several months. While party chair Tabas has been reluctant about imposing edicts from above, many now are pointing the finger at him, saying he failed to provide leadership.
A prominent Republican active in Pennsylvania politics, who requested anonymity to speak freely about party conversations, predicted that some prominent GOP members will publicly support Shapiro over Mastriano. And after Novembers general election, Tabas may see a call for a new party chair.
The general consensus is he failed to lead and left this thing to fester, the Republican said.
Its an act of political malpractice that the Republican State Committee didnt do much to shape or condition the field months ago, said former GOP U.S. Rep Charlie Dent, adding that his criticism wasnt aimed at Tabas specifically. Everyone was worried Mastriano could prevail in a crowded, multi-candidate field.
(snip)
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/how-pa-republican-establishment-broke-itself-trying-stop-doug-mastriano-20220520.html
(emphasis mine)
So he seems to have garnered sustained bipartisan support across the state!
question everything
(48,973 posts)(snip)
Mr. Trump endorsed late in that race, after Mr. Mastriano already had a substantial polling lead, so he cant claim sole credit for the state Senators win in a multicandidate field. But Mr. Mastriano played to Mr. Trumps obsession that the 2020 election was stolen. Mr. Mastriano is the candidate Democrats wanted to run against in November, and they ran ads essentially telling Trump voters he was their man.
Last month Mr. Mastriano addressed a Patriots Arise rally, where other speakers lamented child satanic trafficking and other QAnon nonsense. He sponsored a bill to ban abortion after about six weeks and said at a recent debate that, I dont give way for exceptions either. He wants to rip up contracts with compromised voting machine companies, while doing a reset of the voter rolls: Youre going to have to re-register.
(snip)
If Republicans lose this election, its their own fault, and a warning about chasing 2020 ghosts instead of focusing on the future. One small prophylactic could be to pass a bill soon to let mail votes be preprocessed a few days before Election Day, as many other states permit. Pennsylvanias current rules led this week to late results. Thats the kind of thing that Mr. Mastriano could use to claim another stolen election in November.
More..
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-democrats-get-their-man-pennsylvania-primaries-elections-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-11652898476 (subscription)