Final PA voter registration stats

[Deminpenn]

Monday, Oct 21st was the last day to register to vote in PA. As of that date, registered voters are slightly down from 2020 at 9.088M (2024) vs 9.09M (2020).

Dems lost about 257k voters, Rs gained about 130.7k voters with Ind/Other gaining about 124k. There are now over 1M Ind/unaffiliated registered voters in PA and 347k 3rd party registered voters. Dems hold about a 300k registration advantage statewide.

Pennsylvania voter registrations have been slowly realigning with how voters are voting. For many years, my county had a Dem registration edge, but consistently voted for R for president and usually, but not always, voting R for statewide and local candidates. Registration is now majority R which is line with how the county has been voting.

[arlyellowdog]

1. 127k unaffiliated voters. Wonder if a lot of those were young people

[Deminpenn]

3. Unfortunately, the registration stats don't show a breakdown

of unaffiliated voters by age.

I did a spreadsheet, but the best I could do was track the registration changes by county. It does look like in some counties the Inds were a fairly close match to the D losses, but not consistently. It could be the result of our closed primary system where voters who want a say on candidates have to register with a party, then they switch back to Ind for the general election.

The breakdown by age is:
18-24 Ds - 344.5k and 25-34 Ds - 702.5k for a combined 27% of Dem voters
18-24 Rs - 286.2k and 25-34 Rs - 480.6k for a combined 21% of R voters
18-34 Libertarians total 21.2k

[arlyellowdog]

7. Ok that's impressive work!

[Deminpenn]

11. If only that were true,

but the current PA voter registration data, which is exportable me to Excel, is quite extensive. The archived data goes back to 2003, iirc.

[John1956PA]

2. Yes, Beaver County has been trending red for twenty years.

I think that the county may have gone for Obama twice, but that it went red in the other presidential races over the past twenty years.

[Deminpenn]

4. It makes sense, the demographics are generally

old, white, blue collar, aggrieved, more religious than not. That's pretty much the description of Rs these days.

[John1956PA]

8. And a lot of landowners who got money from fracking. n/t

[Deminpenn]

10. Yet there's a surprising amount of opposition

to fracking and the pipines that carry the cracked gas around here, too.

Residents in Beaver sure are not happy with cracker plant Shell built.

[John1956PA]

12. Yes. Companies learned to locate these polluting plants along riverbanks such as this one is.

The plants which were built years ago allowed pollutants to leach into the soil and migrate for miles into residences. The companies are still facing lawsuits over that soil pollution.

As for the Beaver County Shell cracker plant, any ground-level pollution will find its way just a short distance to the Ohio river.

[Self Esteem]

5. Actually, Kerry was the last Dem to win it.

In 2000, it was Gore +9

In 2004, it was Kerry +3 (so, it did start its shift a toward Republicans).

In 2008, it was McCain +2.

In 2012, it was Romney +6.

In 2016, it was Trump +18.

In 2020, it was Trump +18.

[John1956PA]

6. Thank you for the correction. I did not recall the red edges in 2008 and 2012. n/t

[FakeNoose]

9. Don't forget that our closed primaries are part of the reason

The Repukes LOVE to mess up our Dem primary races. But the only way they can do that is to register as a Democrat. Once they've done their nasty business, pretending to be Dems for a few months, they go back to being Repukes again.

[Deminpenn]

13. Stopped by our local Dem county HQ

this morning and had a nice chat with our county chairwoman. We both agreed Harris isn't likely to win our county, but she did say she's encountered quite a few quiet (shy, hidden?) Harris voters while door knocking and thinks Harris will cut Trump's margin here.

[Deminpenn]

14. Update as of 10/28/24

The final day to register was 10/21, but the stats posted then missed voters who registered at the last minute.

Here are the stats from 10/28 which should have captured those and be the final stats:

Dems 2024/(2020) 3.991M (4.228M)
Rs 3.710M (3.543M)
Ind 1.113M (1.319M includes 3rd party)
3rd Party .347M

2024: 9.162M
2020: 9.091M
That's an increase of about 70k registered voters.

Link to data: https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dos/resources/voting-and-elections-resources/voting-and-election-statistics.html