New F&M poll has has Harris up 4

[Deminpenn]

49-45 among RVs.

They also did an LV breakout that showed Trump up by less than 1 points. But before you panic, the accompanying memo itself points out the LV universe is more Republican and older, over 35.

Overall, they seem to have gotten an odd sample. Harris is winning white voters overall and winning only about 2/3rds of non-white voters

[TwilightZone]

2. Likely voters is a better indicator that registered voters.

Because, well, they're more likely to vote.

"they seem to have gotten an odd sample"

Pollsters adjust for demographics; the adjusted numbers are what they usually publish. With that kind of non-white split, It sounds like it might be an outlier.

[Deminpenn]

3. F&M uses RVs

Last edited Sat Oct 26, 2024, 06:07 AM - Edit history (1)

Their findings are consistent with their results in Aug and September.

You can read the memo accompanying the results that discusses the LV.

As for the individual findings, do you really believe Harris is only winning 53% of non-white voters?

Having read your other posts, I understand you want to see the glass as half empty. But let me assure you We. Are. Going. To. Win

[Deminpenn]

4. Link to poll data

Here's the link to the most recent polling data: https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-october-2024/#_ftn1

The good news is that Harris is winning independent voters. She's attracting well over 60% of voters under 35. She's winning the overall white vote by a couple points.

You can read the summary and specific data for yourself.

The most amusing question was about how voters felt about living in a swing state. Over 60% of respondents were annoyed by all the campaign ads. But nearly the same percent felt they carrued an extra responsibility as voters.

It was surprising, especially given all the money and volunteers the Harris campaign has, that only about 15-17% of voters had been contacted by a door-to-door canvasser.

Also surprising was the 9% of respondents who say they are undecided.

One last interesting response was to the enthusiasm questions. While around 75% were paying attention to the election, only 63% reported themselves to be "enthusiastic" about voting.