Coronavirus and flu could jam hospitals over holidays, scientists warn

[TexasTowelie]

Though coronavirus cases are declining throughout Virginia, public health officials worry the high level this month could create a bigger springboard for a holiday surge than last year.

The caseload entering this October was three times larger than in October 2020, according to a recent analysis by infectious disease modelers at the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute. With 2.7 million Virginians still completely unvaccinated, there’s enough opportunity for a repeat of last year’s wave.

Beyond COVID-19, health officials are concerned the flu season could add more stress to hospitals. Though a so-called “twindemic” never happened last year, it could this season. Experts say it’s unlikely Virginians will match the record flu vaccination numbers of 2020, and fewer lockdown restrictions and prevention measures may make it easier for either virus to spread.

A severe flu could tip hospitalizations over the edge to exceed last January’s peak, according to the university analysis.

Read more: https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-coronavirus-cases-oct-17-20211016-am456mx47jhj3py7ag56mbnrta-story.html

[Rorey]

1. Another reason to continue to wear a mask

I don't understand why people want to take a risk. I may very well wear a mask when I go to indoor public places for the rest of my life. I've gotten to a point where I feel almost naked without one.

[abqtommy]

2. I'm with you on this one. nt

[Scrivener7]

3. Very few people are ever actually hospitalized with the flu.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

snip...

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience.