Youngkin was able to pull 85% of Trump's votes. McAuliffe only turned out 66% of Biden's votes.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Dan Savage Retweeted

Brass tacks: Youngkin was able to pull 85% of Trump's votes. McAuliffe only turned out 66% of Biden's votes.

Enthusiasm matters. And Democrats are losing it.

Link to tweet

So let's say 5,000 of a group of people voted Biden in 2020 and 4,500 voted Trump. That means, according to turnout, 1,650 of the Biden voters stayed home and 675 of the Trump voters did. Which ends up being 3,350 for McAuliffe and 3,850 for Youngkin.

Link to tweet

I know algebra isn't our strong suit as Twitter-pated liberals. But it's really good to dig into those old 9th grade skills to understand why this was a turnout election, and not a sign of some huge swing in the electorate.

Link to tweet

It's not algebra, but I get her point.

[LenaBaby61]

1. Meaning that they didn't get out in enough numbers to make a difference. 2010 all over again.

[qazplm135]

2. We thought they wouldn't turnout without Trump on the ballot

turns out...

Better figure out how to energize our side quick or 22 is going to be a bloodbath.

[rockfordfile]

3. Democrats always do this. You have to get out the vote.

When you don't get out the vote during these elections in a off year, then you get the right-wing nut-jobs in office like the other day.

[moose65]

4. There's something to that!

Democrats have huge turnout during Presidential election years. And then, in the off-years, turnout plummets. Why is that?

One of my theories is that Democrats still don't understand that off-year elections are BASE elections. You can't run around worrying about converting the other side - you have to turn out your own voters. And that takes repeated reinforcement. We have to emphasize that it is important to vote in every election, from president down to dog catcher. And don't worry about converting the other side - it's not going to happen!

Also, Democrats have been hiring these same consultants since 2010 who tell them that they have to moderate their stance in off-year elections to appeal to the mythical "moderates." That is total baloney.

[FBaggins]

5. This mistakenly sees it as just a turnout game

It assumes (dramatically oversimplifying things) that everyone who showed up for McAuliffe was someone who voted for Biden (and the same for Trump/Youngkin) and the race was all about which group was more energized. That's always a factor, but Tuesday's election saw record turnout for a VA governor's race and the proportion who identified as Democrats was the same as last year. McAuliffe received almost 200k more votes than Northam did last cycle.

From Politico today:

Biden Voters Actually Gave Youngkin the Win

William Saletan: “It’s true that Trump has a lot of supporters, and many turned out for Youngkin. In the network exit poll, 42% of people who cast ballots in the Virginia gubernatorial race said they had a favorable view of the former president, and they voted almost unanimously for Youngkin.”

“But these people were outnumbered by the 54% of respondents who expressed an unfavorable view of Trump. If that majority had voted for McAuliffe with anywhere near the same degree of unanimity, Youngkin would have lost. Instead, the Republican won by peeling away one of every six anti-Trump voters.”

“On average, in these polls, Youngkin got more than 7% of Biden voters, while McAuliffe got only 2% of Trump voters. Biden voters, not Trump voters, were decisive.”

https://politicalwire.com/2021/11/04/it-wasnt-trump-supporters-that-helped-youngkin-win/

[JudyM]

6. This ought to be an OP, as well, so important.