What's Going on with Virginia's Early Vote: The Flawed Comparison Between 2024 and 2020, and Why It's Not Worth Reading

[RandySF]

The first day of early voting on September 20 saw record turnout, with over 56,000 Virginians casting a ballot. Since then, daily early voting numbers have gone down, but is still seeing a steady stream of over 20,000 people voting each day in-person and thousands of mail ballots being processed.

It is natural to want to compare early voting numbers to the last presidential election and see what that might tell us about this election. Moreover, given that prior to 2020 Virginians needed as excused to vote early, which Democrats changed to the current universal early voting, 2020 really is the only presidential year that can be used as a comparison.

There have been various reports and analysis that after the initial surge, early voting is “down” in Virginia compared to 2020. Yet it can be unhelpful to make the comparison if the right caveats and qualifications are not explained. There have been some not properly giving full context, either because of unfamiliarity with Virginia early voting patterns or intentionally trying to push a narrative.

But by understanding what happened in 2020, since then, and what is happening in 2024, we can get a sense for what’s actually going on. That will in turn give us clues about what might happen on November 5, although early vote information cannot tell us who will win





https://bluevirginia.us/2024/10/whats-going-on-with-virginias-early-vote-the-flawed-comparison-between-2024-and-2020-and-why-its-not-worth-reading-too-much-into-the-numbers

[Best_man23]

1. The weather over the last week to 10 days may have played a factor

It's been overcast and rainy the last several days (low pressure system, remnants from Helene), which no doubt contributed to the "lower" voting rate. I do know some early voting locations do not have good protection from the weather if there is a line.

The weather over the next 7-10 days is forecast to be clear and nearly fall perfect, so I'm anticipating the early voting rate to rise. Mrs Best and I are in VA-7 and planning to vote next week.