NDP surges past Conservatives, Liberals in latest poll

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Last edited Mon Aug 3, 2015, 06:05 PM - Edit history (1)

The New Democrats have surged to a double-digit lead in public support, gaining more distance over the other federal parties than they have at any time in the past two years, according to a new Forum Research poll.

About four in 10 Canadians surveyed (39 per cent) said they would cast their ballot for the NDP if an election were held today.

The Conservatives fell from neck-and-neck status with the NDP last week to 28 per cent of voter support Sunday, while the Liberals were steady at 25 per cent.

Projected onto an enlarged 338-seat House of Commons, the survey results indicate the NDP would command a solid minority of 160 seats — 10 short of a majority.

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http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservatives-liberals-in-latest-poll.html

I guess the Harper bribe-bump was short lived.

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I hope this team can keep it up for a grueling 11 weeks.

[Fred Sanders]

1. Canada has 5 major federal parties and five different ways of thinking to vote for? Why not just keep it at two?

[Spazito]

3. It's a multi-party system which often comes with a parliamentary system of government n/t

[Spazito]

2. I hope so too...

I do think Mulcair and his team made a mistake in refusing to participate in any debate that doesn't include Harper. He should have said Harper doesn't get to control the debate agenda and agreed to participate in the consortium debate especially because Harper refuses to do so, imo.

I want the NDP to win. I hope Mulcair reverses his decision on this.

[Saviolo]

4. I'm of two minds on this issue

Harper refusing to show up at debates initially looks childish and petulant. Especially from someone like Harper. I hate his policies, but he's a decent debater and certainly a shrewd campaigner, which makes him all the more dangerous.

But as I said, his original refusal to debate seemed childish. When Mulcair first said he wouldn't debate at any forum that Harper didn't attend, I felt like he was lowering himself to Harper's level, but a friend of mine put it in a different light for me. Mulcair's refusal to show up at a debate that Harper refuses to attend makes him look principled. If you think about it, Pierre Trudeau would never have attended a debate that Joe Clark didn't attend. Mulroney would never have come to a debate that Turner refused to show up at. So, that's a new way to look at it. Mulcair is taking a principled stance against the petulant child strategy of Harper, which now makes Harper seem obstructionist in addition to petulant.

Without too much work, Trudeau and Mulcair can both make Harper look like an idiot over this.

[Spazito]

7. I see it as being too cautious in order to try and hold his lead...

Last edited Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:05 PM - Edit history (1)

He didn't take any press questions yesterday and is closeted today and, from what I understand, the rest of the week until the debate Thursday, with his staff preparing for the debate. I think he needs to be front and center, answering questions, participating in debates that will be covered by television outlets.

His lead is soft, imo, and him being absent doesn't help. The Thursday debate isn't going to be televised nationally I believe and so the public will only get sound bites the media wants to show.

Canadians want change, the polls make that clear but are undecided whether to move to the NDP under Mulcair or to the Liberals under Trudeau.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

5. Not sure about that one myself.

I tend to agree with you, and with conventional wisdom, that he should use every opportunity to get his message out there. However maybe his team is trying to show that he's going after Harper, and not fighting for the number 2 spot. It may be a risky strategy, and bad PR move at the moment, but then again maybe it'll be insignificant down the road.

[Spazito]

8. Canadians don't know him that well, imo...

Part of his poll lead is based on the results of the Alberta election and is, therefore, soft. He needs to be out there with the same attitude he had in the House when he was devastating taking on Harper over Duffy and the Senate, imo.

He must not be too cautious, imo, as he will be seen as too scripted, too willing to play Harper's game instead of taking the lead.

[laundry_queen]

9. I agree with what you've said 100%

In all your posts in this thread. I don't really have much more to add.

[Spazito]

11. Thank you! I really, really want him to do well and turf Harper...

I want him gone so bad I can taste it.

[Saviolo]

6. I guess the Harper bribe-bump was short lived.

Just like any windfall in politics.

Handing out cheques is like Rob Ford selling off crown land to make up a budget shortfall. It's not a long-term solution, and you can't do it all that often. Harper traded a lot of political capital by handing out actual capital to people. It was a cynical ploy, and I think it's going to end up back-firing. The timing was clumsy, it looks too much like he's literally trying to buy votes and Mulcair, Trudeau, and May can all beat him over the head with it.

[riverbendviewgal]

10. Lets get that majority

I want to see Orange majority in October Go NDP, Go!

[craigmatic]

12. It'd be cool to see an NDP-Lib coalition. Still 11 weeks is a very long time.