England & Wales Constituency Boundary Proposals are here

[muriel_volestrangler]

Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne and Boris Johnson are among high-profile politicians who will see their seats redrawn in a dramatic shakeup of the country’s electoral map that will alter the constituencies of more than 500 MPs.

Overall, Labour is worst hit by the shifting boundaries, which are part of an effort to cut the number of politicians in parliament from 650 to 600, with significant changes for MPs such as Yvette Cooper, Tristram Hunt and Owen Smith. Many opposition politicians will fear that local members will take the opportunity of a shakeup to try to deselect them if Corbyn retains the leadership later this month.
...
Jon Ashworth, who is a key shadow cabinet minister leading on the policy, called the proposals “unfair, undemocratic and unacceptable”.

He said it was wrong for the calculations to be based on the electoral register at the end of 2015, meaning that 2 million voters who signed up in the run-up to the EU referendum result are not included.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/corbyn-johnson-and-osborne-among-mps-hit-by-electoral-shakeup

You can get the initial proposals from here: http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/

There's also a site for consultation, but it was refusing to connect the last time I tried: http://www.bce2018.org.uk/

Wales loses a lot of seats, because it was over-represented at Westminster.

[LeftishBrit]

1. Very confusing and very gerrymandered-looking

From a quick glance, it might actually improve my own position (i.e. move me from a Tory constituency to a Labour one); but that's not much good if it means that Tories will own our national government forever.

[T_i_B]

3. Similar-ish story for me....

My area is being rejoined with Bolsover under the proposals. In the short term, providing that Dennis Skinner's health holds up it would decrease the risk of me having a Tory MP at the next election.

In the long term however, the area is gentrifying and whilst Dennis Skinner is very popular locally, he is also a very old man who is not going to live forever. Labour still has a lot of work to do if it wants to keep control of the area where I live.

I'll be able to look at other areas at a later date.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. In Hampshire, they've basically gone back to the pre-2010 constituencies

Not surprising, because they needed to abolish 1 seat, so they got rid of the one they'd created then (Meon Valley, which was a bit of a "the bit in the middle made up of small towns and villages on the edge of elsewhere" seat). My town moves back to Romsey/Test Valley, which was Lib Dem before, but I expect will be Tory this time, unless there's a big backlash against them if they screw Brexit up (though what town and rural Hampshire would consider 'screwed up', I can't say yet).

[Matilda]

2. I read that Corbyn's seat of North Islington will be wiped off the map.

I feel a connection - my Cockney gr-grandmother, who emigrated to Australia as a young bride in the 19th century, came from Islington.

I hope Corbyn won't be disadvantaged by the gerrymander, but it doesn't sound good for him.

[T_i_B]

5. Corbyn will almost certainly find a winnable redrawn seat

He is the party leader, and party leaders tend to take priority that way.

Out where I am, it would be a contest between the deputy speaker of the house of commons, Natascha Engel and Dennis Skinner for the redrawn seat. The current state of the Labour party is such that The Beast Of Bolsover should win the nod easily over Engel as the Labour candidate as long as his health holds up.

The more you look at the proposals close up, the worse they are. The proposed Sheffield Hallam & Stocksbridge constituency is a blatant gerrymander designed to give the Tories a foothold in South Yorkshire. Most of what used to be Sheffield Hallam will now be in Sheffield Central & West, a constituency that appears to have been designed specifically to give Nick Clegg a big dose of karma for what he did during the Coalition years.

Back to the constituency I live in, it's going to be called Bolsover & Dronfield. The only problem is that nearly a third of Dronfield has been divvied up to the safe Tory seat of Derbyshire Dales. The boundaries look stupid on a map and they are not popular with folk round here because however nice Derbyshire Dales might be, it's not the area that people feel in any way part of other than occasional family trips out to the Peak District.

[T_i_B]

6. Thinking about this a little more.....

....the infamous Sports Direct warehouse at Shirebrook is going to be in the new constituency, which means that Mike Ashley & his employment practices are likely to be the number 1 local issue round here at the next general election!

[Matilda]

7. How Independent is the Boundary Commission?

Are they subject to pressure from the government?

Our boundaries are drawn by the Australian Electoral Commission which I think is pretty free from bias. While there will be occasional grumbles from some, both parties seem to be treated equally fairly/unfairly when boundaries are redrawn.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. I think they're reasonably independent

Given the rules that parliament gives them (eg it was parliament, not them, who said the numbers had to be based on the electoral register from Dec 2015), they do seem to interpret them fairly, at least when I look at the boundaries around me. They follow the boundaries between local councils most of the time, and the electoral wards within them almost all of the time, and you certainly don't get the ridiculously shaped boundaries the American system comes up with.

What's happened in past is that parties put forward their suggestions, and private individuals, and the commissions will read them, and comment when they feel it's worth it (the parties' submissions always getting some comment). When you look at the parties' submissions, they can be designed to get a bit of advantage sometimes with what areas go in with who, but it's also often just a bit of signalling to electorates of "yes, we see you as a community, and we really care that you want to be the centre of a constituency, please vote for us in the next election". The parties may pay a professional lawyer or similar to write the submissions, but how much difference that makes for the commissions, I don't know.

[LeftishBrit]

9. What really bothers me is: why reduce the number of MPs at all at this stage?

600 is a lower number than we've had at any time in the last 200 years. This could be partially explained in terms of earlier parliaments including MPs for all of Ireland; but it is also lower than in any post-Partition parliament. Meanwhile, the population has increased; MPs' constituency duties have increased, and are, I believe, higher than the equivalent in most other countries; and MPs will have their work cut out for them - whether or not they actually choose to do it! - with all this Brexit mess. If they want to save money, then they could freeze MPs' salaries, reduce allowable expenses, and not increase the size of the House of Lords.

[T_i_B]

10. Boundary changes: Latest plans for Commons seats published

Just had a look at the proposals for my local area, and it seems that the Tories have suddenly decided that the boundaries for the constituency where I live are OK now that they have taken the seat off Labour at the last general election!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41643467

The proposed constituency boundaries in England, Scotland and Wales have been drawn up on the basis the total number of MPs will be cut from 650 to 600.

Parliament approved the principle of reducing the size of the Commons in 2011, intended as a cost-saving measure in the wake of the expenses scandal.

But it is uncertain whether the Commons will end up backing the detailed plans.

If they do so, the proposed new constituencies - recommended by independent bodies in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - will take effect in 2022, the scheduled date of the next election.