US House seats that Democrats need to win to remain in the majority.

[nkpolitics1212]

Last edited Sun May 9, 2021, 12:31 PM - Edit history (1)

These are newly created districts.
1)CO-8(Denver Suburbs district)
2)FL-28(FL Republican state legislatures will make FL-26- Gimenez-R and FL-27- Elvira Salazar-R more Republican. Hispanic majority district.
3)NC-14(Charlotte Suburbs district)
4)OR-6(Portland Suburbs district)
5)TX-37 or TX-38(Hispanic Majority district).

Democrats are probably going to lose due to re-apportionment.
1)MI-8(Slotkin-D) or MI-11(Stevens-D)
2)OH-13(Ryan-D)
3)PA-17(Lamb-D)

+2D based on the newly created districts and the districts that will get eliminated.
Democrats will pick up
1)CA-21
2)CA-25
3)CA-39
4)CA-48
+6D
Democrats will lose
1)IL-17(OPEN Busto-D)
2)IA-3(Axne-D)
3)ME-2(Golden-D)
4)PA-8(Cartwright-D)
5)WI-3(Kind-D)
+1D

[WhiteTara]

1. So, I got lost in that

what is the answer? How many seats do we need to win to maintain our majority? Thanks

[jimfields33]

2. I think we are

https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown

It looks like we hold a 6 seat advantage currently according to the house press gallery. If we gain 1 seat as the OP indicated, we’d have a 7 seat advantage with control.

[WhiteTara]

3. oh good. I see we lose Ryan's seat and Lamb's seat

Lamb was a bit of a disappointment, but still reliable and Ryan is moving to the Senate (we hope) So that part's good. Nancy says she might retire, so that leaves a giant hole.

[jimfields33]

4. Unless she wants to, I hope she waits until 2025 to retire

We need all hands on deck to help president Biden.

[WhiteTara]

5. I agree. We need all the experience and wisdom

we can muster.

[nkpolitics1212]

8. If we include the Vacant seats- we have a 9 seat advantage.

Republicans win TX-6(Susan Wright-R)
Democrats win
FL-20(Winner will be decided in 1/2022 to replace Hastings-D)Bobby DuBose-D FL House Minority Leader.
LA-2(Troy Carter-D)
NM-1(Winner will be decided in 6/2021 to replace Haaland-D) Melania Stansbury-D
OH-11(Winner will be decided in 11/2021 to replace Fudge-D) Nina Turner-D


222D 213R

Democrats need to lose no more than 4 seats to remain in the majority.

Regarding the newly created district- Democrats will win
CO-8 Democratic leaning district in the Denver Suburbs.
FL-28- Democratic leaning minority majority district in order to make Gimenez-R and Elivara Salazar-R district (FL-26 and FL-27) safer.
NC-14- Swing District that Grier Martin-D can win.
OR-6 Democratic leaning district in the Portland suburbs.
TX-37
TX-38)
One of the newly created TX district will be a minority majority district. The other TX district will be a Swing District that Wendy Davis-D can win.

Democrats win the 4 California Districts we narrowly lost in 2020.
CA-21(Valadao-R)
CA-25(Garcia-R)
CA-39(Kim-R)
CA-48(Steel-R)

3 Democratic leaning US House Districts will get eliminated.
MI-11(Stevens-D)
OH-13(Ryan-D)
PA-17(Lamb-D)
Democrats cannot lose no more 11 Democratic leaning US House Districts.
1)AZ-1(O'Halleran-D)
2)IL-17(OPEN Bustos-D)
3)IA-3(Axne-D)
4)ME-2(Golden-D)
5)MI-8(Slotkin-D)
6)NV-3(Lee-D)
7)NJ-3(Kim-D)
8)OR-4(DeFazio-D)
9)PA-7(Wild-D)
10)PA-8(Cartwright-D)
11)WI-3(Kind-D)

[jimfields33]

9. Good point about the vacant seats.

I think the overview you provided was good to see where we need to score up to keep our majority.

[nkpolitics1212]

6. We need to win the 4 CA US Seats we narrowly lost last year.

1)CA-21(Valadao-R)
2)CA-25(Garcia-R)
3)CA-39(Kim-R)
4)CA-48(Steel-R)
Newly created districts in
5)CO-8
6)FL-28
7)NC-14
8)OR-6
9)TX-37 or TX-38
FL-28,NC-14,TX-37,and TX-38 will be minority/majority districts or swing districts.
Seats that will get eliminated
1)MI-11(Stevens-D)
2)OH-13(OPEN Ryan-D)
3)PA-17(Lamb-D)
Seats that Democrats could lose
4)AZ-1(O'Halleran-D)
5)FL-13(OPEN Crist-D)
6)IL-17(OPEN Bustos-D)
7)IA-3(Axne-D)
8)ME-2(Golden-D)
9)MI-8(Slotkin-D)
10)NV-3(Lee-D)
11)OR-4(DeFazio-D)
12)PA-8(Cartwright-D)
13)WI-3(Kind-D)

[WhiteTara]

7. Thanks.