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Democrats are definitely going to retain control of the US Senate in 2022.
Republican’s guide to regain control of the US Senate in 2022 is winning all of the Republican held US Senate seats up for re-election in 2022 and getting Sununu(R-NH) to run for the US Senate and run an error free campaign. Sununu(R-NH) has to win that election.
There is a 50 percent chance that Sununu(R-NH) will enter and win the 2022 NH US Senate Race. Democrats will win competitive Democratic held US Senate seats in NV(Cortez Masto-D), AZ(Kelly-D) and GA(Warnock-D). Democrats are definitely going to win competitive Republican held seats in PA(OPEN Toomey-R/Fetterman-D or Lamb-D) and WI(Johnson-R vs Barnes-D or Godlewski-D).