The worst case scenario for the 2022 Democratic nominee for the US House of Representatives.

[nkpolitics1212]

Reapportionment.
CA)-1R
CO)+1D
FL)+1R/0R
IL)-1R/-1R
MI)-1D/0D
MT)+1R/0R
NY)-1R/-1R
NC)+1R/0R
OH)-1D/-1D
OR)+1D/+0D
PA)-1D/-1D
TX)+2R/+2R
WV)-1R/+1R
US Senate seats Democrats will pick up and lose.
Democrats lose
WI-3)-1D/-2D
WA-8)-1D/-3D
VA-7)-1D/-4D
TX-7)-1D/-5D
PA-8)-1D/-6D
NJ-7)-1D/-7D
NV-3)-1D/-8D
MN-2)-1D/-9D
MI-8)-1D/-10D
IA-3)-1D/-11D
IL-14)-1D/-12D
IL-17)-1D/-13D
GA-7)-1D/-14D
AZ-1)-1D/-15D
Democrats gain
CA-21)+1D/-14D
CA-25)+1D/-13D
CA-39)+1D/-12D
CA-48)+1D/-11D
FL-26)+1D/-10D
FL-27)+1D/-9D

Democrats will have a net loss of 9 seats.

[FBaggins]

1. You're stuck in your normal senate analysis

That list should be “House seats”

And I’d say that it’s pretty close. All else being equal we’ll lose 6-10 seats net.

But “all else” doesn’t have to stay at the current default

[jimfields33]

2. To lose 6-10 seats would be a disaster. We'd lose the house and a complete

stalemate would happen for the rest of President Biden’s presidency. Hope we stay or gain some.

[FBaggins]

3. It's going to take a herculean effort to avoid that disaster

That 6-10 estimate is really “if everyone voted like they did in 2020”. IOW - just the reapportionment and redistricting.

Add the “first midterm of a new president” factor and it will be quite a challenge to retain the House. We need to make solid progress on the pandemic, Afghanistan, and economy.