Democrats will end up with 52 US Senate seats in 2022 by winning

[nkpolitics1212]

37)CA(Padilla-D)
38)HI(Schatz-D)
39)VT(Leahy-D)
40)NY(Schumer-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

[madville]

1. I'm usually a little more pessimistic

Right now I consider GA, PA, WI and AZ as toss-ups. We just dodged a bullet in NH this week though. Also not convinced NV is as safe as it should be in normal times.

Was surprised to see Walker polling +5 ahead of Warnock recently in GA. Also looks like AZ’s current AG will get the R nod, so he has been successful in a previous statewide election. If “Dr. Oz” runs in PA, well who knows what happens there.

A realistic picture is 52-48 either way or somewhere in the middle.

Plus there is always potential for an October surprise on either side. A jilted mistress releasing text messages, sexual assault/harrassment allegations, leaked racist emails/photos, a DUI arrest, who knows, I feel like we’ve seen it all before at this point.