US Senate Seats up for re-election in 2022 that the Democrats will end up winning.

[nkpolitics1212]

Last edited Mon Dec 27, 2021, 05:35 PM - Edit history (2)

Safe D
37)HI(Schatz-D) unopposed
38)CA(Padilla-D) vs Horton-D in 11/2022 general election.
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)NY(Schumer-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D)
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)OR(Wyden-D)
Likely D
46)CO(Bennet-D)
Lean D
47)NH(Hassan-D)
Tilt D
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)WI(Barnes-D)
52)GA(Warnock-D)1/2023 runoff

2nd scenario

37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)MD(Van Hollen-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)VT(Welch-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)IL(Duckworth-D)
45)WA(Murray-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

3rd scenario
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)CA(Padilla-D)
40)VT(Welch-D)
41)CT(Blumenthal-D)
42)MD(Van Holden-D)
43)OR(Wyden-D)
44)WA(Murray-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)PA(Fetterman-D)
49)AZ(Kelly-D)
50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
51)GA(Warnock-D)
52)WI(Barnes-D)

[Rhiannon12866]

1. Oh, please, please let Senator Warnock win in a landslide!

[nkpolitics1212]

2. Warnock could win in a landslide in 1/2023 instead 11/2922.

Our goal is to make sure Warnock gets over 50 percent of the popular vote.
Democrats do not need GA to remain in the majority if they win-
AZ(Kelly-D vs Brnovich-R)
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Laxalt-R)
PA(Fetterman-D vs Oz-R)
WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R)

[Rhiannon12866]

3. Well, Rachel Maddow had statements made by his TFG-supported opponent Hershel Walker last week

And the guy didn't even know who John Lewis was! Compare him with Senator Warnock who she just said last week may be our most eloquent senator. Of course we need to retain and have gains in the majority, but we also need to defeat the troublemakers and the deadwood, not add to it!

[BumRushDaShow]

5. For PA

regarding the (R) candidates who have declared so far, as a carpet-bagger, Oz might be ignored because there is another declared GOP candidate on the list - Jeff Bartos - who actually made it through a state-wide GOP primary (for Lt. Governor) and joined with Scott Wagner to run in the gubernatorial race against Wolf/Fetterman in 2018 (where he lost but is still a "known" ).

[nkpolitics1212]

12. WI(Barnes-D vs Johnson-R) or (Barnes-D vs US Rep.Ryan/Duffy/Steil/Gallagher)

What are Mandela Barnes-D chances of winning against those people including Walker and Kleefish?

[BumRushDaShow]

13. I haven't followed the other states that closely

but am monitoring PA since I live here.

However I am hoping that whichever (D) makes it through the WI primary can boot Johnson the hell out of that seat because he is a complete RW loon.

Feingold's margin wasn't that bad during his last attempt so the potential is there to get a (D) back in there. But I understand Evers is also up in 2022 and his election was much closer. So there will really need to be a big turnout there from the urban areas to get any of the (D)s over the finish line.

[nkpolitics1212]

14. PA and/or WI are the 2 states the Democrats need to win without GA.

I think the Kelly(D-AZ) and Cortez Masto(D-NV) both win.

Democrats have plenty of ways of retaining control of the US Senate.
1)AZ,NV, and GA
2)AZ,NV, and PA
3)AZ,NV, and WI
4)AZ,GA, and PA.
5)AZ,GA, and WI
6)AZ.PA, and WI
7)NV,GA, and WI
8)NV,GA, and PA
9)NV,WI, and PA
10)GA,PA,and WI

[BumRushDaShow]

15. I will say in all of those cases

it will be turnout turnout turnout required types of races which might be tricky. In the cases of WI and PA, there are also gubernatorial elections so that tends to up the turnout more than some of the usual off-term or mid-term elections.

I think Kelly probably the best chance (particularly with any who are pissed off with Sinema). NV & WI had similar close races but would probably come in 2nd.

PA is up in the air because it's an open seat with no incumbent, but with Fetterman pretty much on the "national stage" (due to his many appearances on MSM), he has a good chance - again if we can get the urban turnout going. Fetterman has a base in western PA but has made himself known statewide and can capture many of the indie pro-MJ legalization crowd plus the vote-rich SE part of the state where 1/3rd of the state's population lives.

The one thing that is being lofted by the local political pundits here is the fact that PA hasn't had 2 (D) Senators since the 1940s (not counting when Arlen Specter changed parties in 2009 from R to D), so it's a bit of a "mental" hurdle to get over. However precedent had already been broken with the election of Tom Wolf as governor for his first term in 2014/2015, beating incumbent Tom Corbett, where governors who ran for 2nd terms (no matter which party) always won re-election PRIOR to Wolf making Corbett a 1-term governor and snapping that 50+ year record.

I am also heartened by Josh Shapiro running for governor here (Wolf is a lame duck in his 2nd term) because like Fetterman, he has also garnered "national attention" as a superstar AG, with few on the (D) side really ready to seriously challenge him in a primary.

[nkpolitics1212]

16. The best case scenario for Democrats retaining control of the US Senate is to win

AZ,NV,and PA.

Democrats are going to win
37)HI(Schatz-D)
38)NY(Schumer-D)
39)VT(Welch-D)
40)CA(Padilla-D)
41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
42)CT(Blumenthal-D
43)WA(Murray-D)
44)OR(Wyden-D)
45)IL(Duckworth-D)
46)CO(Bennet-D)
47)NH(Hassan-D)
48)AZ(Kelly-D)
49)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
50)PA(Fetterman-D)

Democrats will be in the majority before GA.

[oldsoftie]

4. I think he'll win, but it wont be a landslide. Walker is a God in GA.

Even though its been decades since he played.

[Rhiannon12866]

6. He may be a legendary award winning sports figure, but he knows nothing about politics or issues

No wonder he's supported by TFG.

[oldsoftie]

8. Well, we've had several novices elected over the past 6-8 yrs. Both parties.

Look how high the Rock polls for President. Back in April a poll showed him getting 40+% support!!
I doubt he'd be worse than TRump!

[gab13by13]

7. Anyone ever vacationed in Iceland?

[Lonestarblue]

9. I'm curious whether you think Ryan has a chance in Ohio.

The Republicans have several candidates, but none seem well known throughout the state.

[nkpolitics1212]

11. The problem with Ryan is DeWine's coattails.

Ryan is not god like Sherrod.

[Tommymac]

10. Fetterman is NOT a lock in PA - Dr. Oz is going to be tough to overcome...

unless we can start educating rural and independent voters in PA how much of a quack he is. Now.

I'll be working my ass off for Lt. Gov Fetterman in the coming months.