Labor Dept announces jobs report and other reports') release dates after shutdown delay # ADDED: Feb 9-13 calendar

[progree]

This discussion thread is pinned.

Feb 4 about 430 PM ET
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/labor-department-announces-jobs-report-release-date-after-shutdown-delay/ar-AA1VG2Oh

The jobs report was initially supposed to be released this Friday, but the agency’s findings will now be made public next Wednesday, according to an updated calendar on the BLS website ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm ).

Additionally, January’s consumer price index and real earnings reports will now be released next Friday. December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment data will be released later this week.

[progree]

1. Here's this week (Feb 9 - Feb 13) calendar from the S&P 500 thread that I updated Friday

(the S&P 500 thread also has about a month of previous reports and their key results, either in the OP (for the past week or two) or in Reply #1 of that for older ones.)

The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

MONDAY FEB 09

Nothing

TUESDAY FEB 10

# NFIB optimism index, January

# Employment Cost index, Q4 - Considered the best statistic on wages/salaries and benefits, and the Federal Reserve's favorite source on the same.

The ECI shows changes in wages and benefits in a manner that fixes the composition of the workforce. This is important, particularly when there are large changes in employment, because these data are not subject to the same distortions as the monthly average hourly earnings series, which can artificially be increased when low-wage workers lose their jobs and drop out of the sample (as happened in 2020) or artificially be decreased when these same workers are hired back (as happened in 2021) [1].

By fixing workforce composition, the ECI provides a more accurate picture of what is actually happening to wages.

[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21 ((Biden era))
. . . Original link now gone, thanks to Krasnov: https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/
. . . The Archive.org link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220208080743/https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/

# Import price index

# Retail sales - caution: not inflation-adjusted, so one gets a distorted view of increases in retail sales, when often most of that is simply due to price increases. It is seasonally adjusted.


WEDNESDAY FEB 11

# The big "First Friday" monthly BLS jobs report that produces the headline non-farm payroll jobs number and unemployment rate - January -- In December it was a tiny 50,000 gain and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Ultimate source of the latest release: https://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
. . This report will also include the annual benchmark revision to the non-farm payroll jobs numbers, in this case from April 1, 2025 through March 31, 2026. The preliminary revision we saw last September was a 911,000 downward revision for that 12-month period. Because these numbers were preliminary, the data time series https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth were not updated for those numbers. It is my understanding that they will be revised this time.

[] Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
The old number: 150,000 jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
The new number: 57,000 +/- 25,000 at a 90% confidence interval (think Heinz 57 varieties)
FFI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143563268#post4

[] ACCURACY OF JOBS NUMBERS -- # Payroll jobs number sampling error: +/- 136,000 at 90% confidence = 55,800 at 50% confidence. And the unemployed numbers are +/- 300,000 (and +/- 0.2% for the unemployment rate).
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
. . And, no Powell did not say the numbers are being fudged, but he did say they are significantly over-estimated (so the +/- 136,000 stuff above was applicable to a previous less volatile era) 12/10/25 -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220859756

THURSDAY FEB 12

# Unemployment insurance claims
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is likely to be at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260212
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# Existing home sales Jan.

FRIDAY FEB 13

# Consumer price index Jan.

====================================================
Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule