GDPNow is predicting that Q3 GDP will be +2.4% (seas adjusted annual rate)

[progree]

This is a big jump up from +0.3% in their last prediction a week or so ago. (Q3 ended Sept 30, yesterday)

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

They use the data that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the defacto official judges of when recessions begin and end says they use, and let their algorithm grind it. For better or worse, GDPNow (a product of the Atlanta Fed) do not use any human judgement in the process (other than what was put in developing the algorithm) - whatever the algorithm spits out, that's it.

I haven't looked into what made the number jump so much, though real personal income and real consumer spending reports came out 9/30/22 ("real" is bureaucrat-speak for inflation-adjusted) and they were both positive.
    https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142975815

At the link above the OP title and OP starts out talking about the PCE inflation measure (which wasn't good news according to the punditocracy), but scroll down a ways to get to the stuff on personal income and personal consumption expenditures aka consumer spending, and all that other good stuff.

Edited to add Fuckit, I'm going to REC it, even if it's my own post. I think it's good news, but that's just me I guess.

Late Edit to add - For those who aren't quite getting it: We've already had 2 consecutive quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. That's the informal definition of a recession, but fortunately most of the punditocracy and economists have said we're not in a recession and none expected in the very near term.

But do you really want 3 quarters of negative GDP growth being reported on October 27? (the BLS's release date for its first estimate of Q3 GDP). Less than 2 weeks before the midterm election? Do you think the punditocracy is going to let us off this time? Maybe, maybe not. But wouldn't it be better for our midterm election chances if they reported positive growth in Q3?

Unless you think we're going to get a sympathy vote for 3 negative quarters in a row, and extra points for consistency.

[doc03]

1. This sounds like bad news to me the Fed wants a recession so we will see another

interest rate increase.

[progree]

2. I haven't heard that they want a recession, but oh well. They want a slow down, that's different

than a recession. That said, there is widespread opinion that they can't get inflation to a sustained near-2% rate (their stated target) without a recession, and history hasn't been kind to past attempts to do this "soft landing".

Edited to add Anyway, I don't want headlines saying we've had 3 quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, but again, that's just me. The first official estimate of Q3 GDP is in late October (edit: Oct 27), less than 2 weeks before the midterm elections.

[doc03]

3. Lets put it another way the Fed wants unemployment to go up so

people won't ask for higher wages. Call it a slowdown if you want.

[progree]

4. I will. A small rise in unemployment rate is not a recession. We've already had a rise in the UR

But we still had a good-sized gain in jobs and apparently in economic growth.

Like I said, in my late edit in the above post, I don't want headlines saying we've had 3 quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, but again, that's just me. The first official estimate of Q3 GDP is in late October (edit: Oct 27), less than 2 weeks before the midterm elections.

[questionseverything]

5. We are in positive territory, so good news!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. The Koch brothers pay me to be gloomy and post threads that spread disarray.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142975815

At the link above the OP title and OP starts out talking about the PCE inflation measure (which wasn't good news according to the punditocracy), but scroll down a ways to get to the stuff on personal income and personal consumption expenditures aka consumer spending, and all that other good stuff.

More big stuff coming up this week.

Thanks for the thread. And good morning.

[progree]

7. LOL! and good morning. Yes, First Friday is just down the street a little ways, that we can

savor (?) and enjoy (?) after 4 more days of exciting market action.