U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since April

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Economic Report

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to lowest level since April

Last Updated: Jan. 26, 2023 at 8:47 a.m. ET
First Published: Jan. 26, 2023 at 8:43 a.m. ET
By Greg Robb

Jobless claims fall 6,000 t0 186,000

The numbers: Initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 186,000 in the week ended Jan. 21, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would rise 15,000 to 205,000.

Last week claims fell a revised 14,000 to 192,000. That compared with the initial estimate of a decline of 15,000 to 190,000.

Key details: The number of people already collecting jobless benefits rose by 20,000 to 1.68 million.

On an unadjusted basis, claims fell by 63,849 to 224,481.

Only two states reported a rise in unadjusted claims in the latest week.

Big picture: Layoffs appear to be spreading out of the technology sector but have yet to dent the strong job market. This could mean that a recession may come later or not at all. Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, says companies are holding onto workers because they believe any recession is going to be shallow.

{snip}

[Alexander Of Assyria]

1. Recession? What recession? The Rich want one so Rs can point fingers. Gonna have to wait.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. These are great numbers

Link to tweet

[progree]

3. From the source... as for continuing claims: up 20k to 1,675k (previous week revised up 8k)

(what is commonly called continuing claims is insured unemployment in the below)

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending January 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 186,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 190,000 to 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 197,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 206,000 to 206,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 14, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 14 was 1,675,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 8,000 from 1,647,000 to 1,655,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,664,250, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,000 from 1,673,000 to 1,675,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 224,481 in the week ending January 21, a decrease of 63,849 (or -22.1 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 56,437 (or -19.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 266,990 initial claims in the comparable week in 2022. The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent during the week ending January 14, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,873,829, a decrease of 34,805 (or -1.8 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 56,282 (or -2.9 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.4 percent and the volume was 2,001,240.

There are nice graphs of both initial claims and insured unemployment (continuing claims) for the past 12 months. Both the regular series and the moving average. And for both the seasonally adjusted numbers and for the unadjusted numbers.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Thanks. I was actually "working" today. I didn't link to the source last week either. NT