U.S. weekly jobless claims at nine-month low; productivity accelerates

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Macro Matters

4 minute read • February 2, 202310:07 AM EST • Last Updated 20 min ago

U.S. weekly jobless claims at nine-month low; productivity accelerates

By Lucia Mutikani

Summary
• Weekly jobless claims drop 3,000 to 183,000
• Continuing claims decrease 11,000 to 1.655 million
• Productivity accelerates at 3.0% rate in fourth quarter
• Unit labor costs grow at 1.1% pace

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a nine-month low last week as the labor market remains resilient despite higher borrowing costs and mounting fears of a recession this year.

The surprise decline in weekly jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday raised cautious optimism that the anticipated downturn will be shallow and short. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday that "the economy can return to 2% inflation without a really significant downturn or a really big increase in unemployment."

"Layoffs remain low and demand for workers is still strong," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. "The labor market has yet to respond meaningfully to a rapid increase in interest rates." Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 183,000 for the week ended Jan. 28, the lowest level since April 2022. It was the third straight weekly decline in applications. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims for the latest week.

{snip}

Claims have been running low this year, consistent with a persistently tight labor market. The government reported on Wednesday that there were 11 million job openings at the end of December, with 1.9 openings for every unemployed person.

{snip}

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20230183.pdf

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, February 2, 2023

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 183,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 186,000. The 4-week moving average was 191,750, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 197,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.1 percent for the week ending January 21, unchanged from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.1 from 1.2 to 1.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 21 was 1,655,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 9,000 from 1,675,000 to 1,666,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,651,500, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,664,250 to 1,662,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 224,356 in the week ending January 28, a decrease of 872 (or -0.4 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 3,915 (or 1.7 percent) from the previous week. There were 257,583 initial claims in the comparable week in 2022.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent during the week ending January 21, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,916,025, an increase of 52,079 (or 2.8 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 64,963 (or 3.5 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.5 percent and the volume was 2,034,539.

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending January 14 was 1,890,277, a decrease of 45,459 from the previous week. There were 2,198,192 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2022.

{snip the rest of the ten-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 23-183-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[Farmer-Rick]

2. How can this be true

If this is true?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-layoffs-hit-two-year-high-jan-tech-slashed-thousands-jobs-report-2023-02-02/

"U.S. layoffs surged in January as tech slashed thousands of jobs - report

U.S. layoffs surged in January as tech slashed thousands of jobs - report

By Samrhitha Arunasalam

Feb 2 (Reuters) - Layoffs in the United States hit a more than two-year high in January as technology firms cut jobs at the second-highest pace on record to brace for a possible recession, a report showed on Thursday."

The average person will be very confused by this and believe the government is lying to them. And god forbid the corporate media make an attempt to explain what sounds like a complete contradiction.

[bronxiteforever]

3. Wow!The unemployment rate is at its lowest since 1969

That's right: The US hasn't seen an unemployment rate this low since the moon landing. Attendees at Woodstock experienced a labor market this tight; now, Americans scrambling for Beyoncé tickets are in a similar position.

The data comes on the heels of several other economic indicators that show while fears of an economic downturn are abundant , they're nowhere to be found in the numbers. The gross domestic product, or GDP, grew 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Inflation has cooled down, and might be cooling even faster than it seems.

To be sure, the thousands of tech workers swept up in recent layoffs probably aren't feeling as rosy. It's another paradox of the labor market, which, by all accounts, is still red-hot. Even with those thousands of layoffs, though, there are plenty of firms ready and willing to hire — and that's exactly what they did in January.

"The unemployment rate's at the lowest since 1969. It's great news. What else is there to say about it?" Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, told Insider. "I think it just reemphasizes that the labor market is strong, and has been stronger than you might be able to infer just from some of the headlines we've been seeing about layoffs."

https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-lowest-since-1969-hiring-recession-fears-2023-2


Go Joe!