(Today) is Jobs Day, my favorite day of the month! Except that (today's) report is going to be ...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

This is a long thread, but it goes into the fine print of the jobs report that will be released at 8:30 this morning.

Alexandra Semenova just got back from vacation.

Alexandra Semenova Retweeted

Tomorrow is #JobsDay, my favorite day of the month! Except that tomorrow's report is going to be so, so, SO annoying. Quick, nerdy thread on why:

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First, population adjustments! For the January jobs data every year,
@BLS_gov
incorporates updated population estimates into the Current Population Survey (the source of data on the labor force, unemployment, etc).

Importantly, BLS does *not* revise its previously published data -- it treats each year's adjustment as a one-time change, as if the population suddenly grew or shrank in January, as you can see in this chart.

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That means that the household survey estimates are NOT directly comparable between December and January. And sometimes, it can make a really big difference -- as it did last year, when if you missed the adjustments, you'd get the whole interpretation of the report wrong.

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