JOLTS - Job Opening & Labor Turnover - nice graph of Openings and Quits. A slight decline in labor mkt conditions

[progree]

in June, but a slow and steady decline since the beginning of 2022. (March 2022 was the first Fed interest rate increase).

Job openings dip slightly in June amid signs of 'turbulence' in labor market, Josh Shaper, Yahoo Finance, 7/30/24
. . .
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed that 8.18 million jobs were open at the end of June, a decrease from the 8.23 million job openings in May. May's figure was revised higher from the 8.14 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show 8 million openings in June. ((so: May; 8.14 -- > revised up -- > 8.23, June: 8.18. Lower numbers are worse for job seekers))

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.3 million hires were made during the month, a slight decrease from May's revised figure of 5.7 million. The hiring rate declined to 3.4% from 3.6% in May. ((so: May: 5.7 - > June: 5.3))

Also, in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, sat at 2.1% for the second straight month. In June, there were 3.28 million quits, down from 3.4 million in May and the lowest number of quits in a month since November 2020.

. . . After the release of Tuesday's data, former US Secretary of Labor Seth Harris told Yahoo Finance the recent decline in quits indicates that workers are "feeling a little bit less secure that if they leave their jobs, they'll be able to find another job."

This is one of the early signs of "turbulence" in the labor market data, per Harris, and one of the reasons he believes the Federal Reserve should be cutting interest rates when it announces its next policy decision on Wednesday.

It says hardly anyone expects a rate cut in the July meeting, but the press conference Wednesday 2:30 PM ET may set up a rate cut for September.

[unblock]

1. Market expectation is no cut this time, but a .25% cut at each of the following 3 meetings

.75% cut by the end of the year.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. BLS Report: June job openings unchanged; hires and total separations change little

People come; people go.

This is JOLTS, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It used to come out a few days after the monthly payroll employment report, but now it seems to run on its own schedule.

The number of quits indicates how confident people are of finding another job if they leave the one they have.

June job openings unchanged; hires and total separations change little

Economic News Release USDL-24-1567

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Technical information: [phone] • [e-mail] • www.bls.gov/jlt
Media contact: [phone] • [e-mail]

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JUNE 2024

The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by establishment size class.

Job Openings

On the last business day of June, the number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million and was down by 941,000 over the year. The job openings rate held at 4.9 percent in June. Job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+120,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (+94,000). The number of job openings decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-88,000) and in federal government (-62,000). (See table 1.)

Hires

The number of hires was little changed at 5.3 million in June but was down by 554,000 over the year. The hires rate, at 3.4 percent, changed little in June. (See table 2.)

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

The number of total separations in June changed little at 5.1 million. This measure was down by 544,000 over the year. The total separations rate was little changed at 3.2 percent in June. Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-51,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-39,000). (See table 3.)

In June, the number of quits was little changed at 3.3 million but was down by 434,000 over the year. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent in June. Quits decreased in construction (-64,000) and in state and local government education (-55,000). (See table 4.)

In June, the number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.5 million, and the rate decreased to 0.9 percent. Layoffs and discharges decreased in finance and insurance (-26,000). (See table 5.)

The number of other separations was little changed in June at 314,000. (See table 6.)

Establishment Size Class

In June, for establishments with 1 to 9 employees, the job openings rate, hires rate, and total separations rate changed little. For establishments with 5,000 or more employees, the layoffs and discharges rate decreased, while the job openings rate and total separations rate changed little. The hires rate was unchanged. (See table 7.)

May 2024 Revisions

The number of job openings for May was revised up by 90,000 to 8.2 million, the number of hires was revised down by 101,000 to 5.7 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 25,000 to 5.4 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 56,000 to 3.4 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 24,000 to 1.7 million. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
____________
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey estimates for July 2024 are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, September 4, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

{snip a lot of tables}

* * * * *

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Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

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Some previous reports. I don't post them every month anymore.

Tue Jul 2, 2024: BLS Report: May job openings, hires, and total separations change little

Wed Jun 5, 2024: BLS Report: April job openings, hires, and total separations change little

Wed May 1, 2024: BLS Report: March job openings and hires change little; total separations decrease

Wed May 1, 2024, 12:28 PM: US job openings fall to 8.5 million in March, the lowest level in more than 3 years (in LBN)

Tue Apr 2, 2024, 03:39 PM: BLS Report: February job openings, hires, and total separations change little

Tue Apr 2, 2024, 03:22 PM: Job openings data shows US labor market remains 'quite healthy' (in LBN)

Wed Jan 3, 2024: BLS Report: Hires and total separations decrease in November; job openings change little

Tue Oct 4, 2022: BLS Report: August job openings decrease; hires and total separations change little (this one)

Tue Aug 30, 2022: BLS Report: July job openings change little; hires and total separations also change little

Tue Aug 30, 2022: Job vacancies rose in July, dashing Fed hopes for cooling (in LBN)

Tue Aug 2, 2022: U.S. job openings at nine-month low; labor market still tight (in LBN)

Wed Jul 6, 2022: BLS Report: May job openings decrease; hires and total separations change little

Wed Jun 1, 2022: BLS Report: April job openings decrease; layoffs and discharges edge down to series low

Tue May 3, 2022: BLS Report: March job openings and quits reach series highs; total separations edge up

Tue Mar 29, 2022: BLS Report: February job openings and total separations change little; hires edge up

{snip the rest}

Related:

Wed Jan 27, 2021: BLS Report: Gross job losses 20.4 million and gross job gains 5.7 million in the 2nd quarter of 2020