Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown

[mahatmakanejeeves]

ECONOMY
Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown

PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 3 2024 • 10:54 AM EDT UPDATED TUE, SEP 3 2024 • 12:10 PM EDT

Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM

KEY POINTS
• The ISM monthly survey of purchasing managers showed that just 47.2% reported expansion in August, above the July reading but below the consensus forecast.
• Another weak economic reading raises the probability the Fed will be cutting interest rates by at least a quarter percentage point later this month.


Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric auto maker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, U.S. June 21, 2024.
Joel Angel Juarez | Reuters

U.S. factories remained in slowdown mode in August, fueling fears about where the economy is headed, according to separate manufacturing gauges.

The Institute for Supply Management monthly survey of purchasing managers showed that just 47.2% reported expansion during the month, below the 50% breakeven point for activity. … Though that was slightly above the 46.8% recorded for July, it was below the Dow Jones consensus call for 47.9%.

“While still in contraction territory, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and election uncertainty,” he added.

{snip}

[Phoenix61]

1. Car sales, especially, slow in the summer.

2026 models come out in September and October which makes that brand new 2025 model a one year old car. Dealers are much more willing to negotiate prices on them. Throw in people spending on vacation which they really did this year post-Covid and it’s no wonder they are buying less manufactured goods.

[MichMan]

2. 2026 models?

[Phoenix61]

3. Make the 2025. Typing without caffine is always a risk. nt

[progree]

4. Most economic reports are seasonably adjusted, although I don't know about this particular one -

the article doesn't say.

Google says they are
"are the pmi surveys seaonally adjusted?"

"are the ISM surveys seasonally adjusted?"

[progree]

5. Here's a lengthy one with lots of graphs on the PMI manufacturing survey

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-five-economic-takeaways-from-augusts-pmi-as-the-global-manufacturing-decline-continues-Jul24.html