2/5 - Nearly A Foot Of Rain In 24 Hours At UCLA Station; Warming Bodes Worse For Future CA Storms

[hatrack]

EDIT

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Daniel Swain on X:

I wanted to reiterate some recent findings from our own research specifically addressing extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in a warming climate. 1) CA will more extreme ARs in a warming climate, mainly (~80%) due water vapor increases. Extreme CA ARs in a warming climate will not only be more intense, but they may also have preferentially more southerly (deep subtropical) origins (like present one!).

Integrated vapor transport, a measure of AR intensity, may increase at a “super Clausius-Clapeyron” rate (>>7%/C), especially over Southern California!

Additionally, we also find that the most intense hourly rainfall *rates* within such extreme ARs will likely increase much faster than total precip accumulations–perhaps twice as fast! This is very important for flash flood/debris flow risk

As part of #ARkStorm 2.0 scenario research, we did find that climate change is dramatically raising the risk of a severe multi-week storm sequence capable of causing widespread, catastrophic floods (and has already doubled the odds!) But, importantly, ARkStorm scenarios involve *much longer, more severe, and more widespread storm sequence than is currently occurring.* Good news? Feb 2024 isn’t an ARK2-like scenario. Bad news? A real such occurrence would be much worse.

EDIT

https://thinc.blog/2024/02/05/fears-in-the-rain-as-la-finally-catches-up-with-blade-runner/#more-95095

[Lovie777]

1. I've been up since 3 a.m....................................

steady rain so far and it's almost 6 a.m.

I truly do not remember rain like this in my lifetime.

[chia]

3. An incredible amount of rain for SoCal, and I remember Miracle March. Stay safe!

[chia]

2. In San Diego, and when the rain didn't start as forecast yesterday morning and the day went on,

I feared this for LA, that the atmospheric river would stall. Don't know what that means for San Diego, whether it heads east from there or dips further south. I'm sorry for all who are impacted, stay as safe as you can.