Stanford University: AI predicts Earth's peak warming

[OKIsItJustMe]

https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/ai-predicts-earths-peak-warming

AI predicts Earth's peak warming
Artificial intelligence provides new evidence that rapid decarbonization will not prevent warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. The hottest years of this century are likely to shatter recent records.

December 10, 2024
By Josie Garthwaite

Researchers have found that the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now almost certainly out of reach.

The results, published Dec. 10 in Geophysical Research Letters, suggest the hottest years ahead will very likely shatter existing heat records. There is a 50% chance, the authors reported, that global warming will breach 2 degrees Celsius even if humanity meets current goals of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the 2050s.

A number of previous studies, including the authoritative assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have concluded that decarbonization at this pace would likely keep global warming below 2 degrees.

“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes. This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently,” said Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study with Colorado State University climate scientist Elizabeth Barnes

…

http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

[OKIsItJustMe]

1. AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected

https://ioppublishing.org/news/ai-predicts-that-most-of-the-world-will-see-temperatures-rise-to-3c-much-faster-than-previously-expected/

AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected
10 Dec 2024 by Kate Giles

…

Key Findings

Using AI-based transfer learning, the researchers analysed data from 10 different climate models to predict temperature increases and found:

• 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
• 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.
• 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

Elizabeth Barnes says:

“Our research underscores the importance of incorporating innovative AI techniques like transfer learning into climate modelling to potentially improve and constrain regional forecasts and provide actionable insights for policymakers, scientists, and communities worldwide.”

Noah Diffenbaugh, co-author and professor at Stanford University, added:

“It is important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. By constraining when regional warming thresholds will be reached, we can more clearly anticipate the timing of specific impacts on society and ecosystems. The challenge is that regional climate change can be more uncertain, both because the climate system is inherently more noisy at smaller spatial scales and because processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface create uncertainty about exactly how a given region will respond to global-scale warming.”

…

[Mike 03]

6. This is more in line with what I was expecting to see

from the A.I. interventions, unfortunately.

It's obvious even to laypersons that warming is exceeding many of the models. It's incredibly scary--and we won't hear very much about it in the United States during the Trump dictatorship. He will probably ban the use of the words "global warming" and "climate change." And he'll roll back as many of Biden's climate programs as possible.

Suicidal stupidity.

[RandySF]

2. Well, it was good knowing you guys.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. Plenty of time to say goodbye

A few years at least…

[-misanthroptimist]

7. Maybe...maybe not

It is highly unlikely that the temperature alone will do in civilization. That will happen due to extreme weather events in food producing regions. The probability of such events occurring continues to increase. A 2C increase in temperature doesn't guarantee such devastating effects, it just raises the likelihood. That likelihood, though smaller, still exists at 1.5C -which is where we were last year. While such a catastrophe is still unlikely, it has still never been more likely than it is now.

One year with food producing regions being devastated really is all it will take to unravel civilization. The poor nations will starve. The rich nations will face price inflation of food prices that haven't been seen on a global scale ever, likely resulting in riots and widespread political instability.

The upshot of all of that is that we may have plenty of time to prepare, or none at all. And not a person on Earth can tell you with any real confidence which is closer to correct.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. There's another indirect threat

As climate pressures mount, and territorial disputes increase, the chance that some “rogue state” decides to start lobbing nuclear warheads could bring a whole new world of trouble.

Even without a nuclear exchange, if the GOP thinks we have an “immigration problem” now, just wait…

I can’t help wondering if the drones seen flying about in the "tri-state area" are doing reconnaissance flights for some purpose.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143354574

[-misanthroptimist]

11. I think nuclear war is probable

The Himalayan glaciers provide huge amounts of water to China, India, and Pakistan -all of whom possess nuclear weapons. Those glaciers are melting rapidly. When the fresh water supply is diminished enough, it's fairly probable that one or more of those nations will lob nukes to try and keep an adequate water supply.

All things being equal, that probably is a late 21st - early 22nd century problem -if nations and nukes still exist in any meaningful way by then.

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. From: Water, ice, society, and ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

https://hkh.icimod.org/hi-wise/hi-wise-report/

[-misanthroptimist]

13. Thanks for that

I hadn't seen that particular paper. I will read it. Just off the graphics, I think I have a handle on the situation generally.

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. You're welcome

The best case scenario seems to be that by 2100, the area of the glaciers will be at about 70% less than it was in 2001.

[Old Crank]

4. It will hit 3 C

We aren't doing enough right now. This incoming administration will literally add fuel to the fire. Businesses are too busy creating shareholder value to cut back.
What my immediate family does to cut back is of almost no consequence.
I won't be around to see the worst.

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. I know how you feel

I do my very best to conserve. I fret about an “unnecessary” 10 miles of driving. Then I hear about friends, relatives, acquaintances literally flying all over the globe.

I don’t believe anyone who is alive will “be around to see the worst."

[Old Crank]

15. We have friends like that

three flights to Europe from CA with the family....
We just went to Lyon, from Munich, by train. Much more relaxing.
We limit our return flights to the US unless needed. Now the requirements to be there have fallen away.
Our lights are all LED and keep our apt around 68-70 in the winter.

[NNadir]

5. You mean a vast mountain range of batteries, covering all of our new deserts with solar cells and wind turbines...

...taking all of our fresh water and electrolyzing it to make hydrogen won't work to save every living thing on the planet?

Can't we just repeal the laws of thermodynamics in Congress?

Here I was, thinking everything was just great because so called "renewable energy" was so great.

Oh well, it's not as bad as Fukushima, is it? Isn't there a nice University Press release that will show us the way to nirvana?

If anyone wants to know who is responsible for this, a mirror could be a useful device for making the discovery. This is particularly reactionaries.

[OKIsItJustMe]

9. I have a better idea

Let’s all sit on our thumbs and wait for all of those miraculous Gen IV reactors to get out of the dream & development, approval & deployment phases, swapping thumbs occasionally, while carbon emissions continue to grow. Yeah! That’s the ticket!

Or, we could deploy technology today that works today, like other countries are successfully doing. No, that would be stupid!

https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach