Scientific Study: UK Government Must Prepare For "Plausible" Worst-Case Climate - 4C Hotter, Seas 2 Meters Higher
The worst-case impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been laid bare by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea level. Another scenario sees a plunge of 6C in temperature after the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, massively disrupting farming and energy needs.
The impacts, some of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as low probability but plausible. The researchers said the scenarios filled a gap in forecasting that had left the UK unprepared for extreme outcomes. A second set of worst-case scenarios sets out the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple normal levels.
“The climate extremes we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are plausible,” said Nigel Arnell, a University of Reading professor who led the study. “The UK has been planning without the tools to test against worst-case scenarios. We’ve now given decision-makers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore.”
The probability of the extreme scenarios happening could not be calculated because of uncertainty about what action will be taken to tackle global heating and how the climate system will respond. Arnell said this made the analysis similar to national security risk assessments or the Bank of England’s stress tests for the financial system. “You couldn’t have known what the probability of Russia invading Ukraine was, but you could have said this is what the consequences might be,” he added.
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/dec/18/massive-disruption-uk-worst-case-climate-crisis-risks