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Study Finds Wetter Storms Mean Drier Conditions Over Time
https://home.dartmouth.edu/news/2026/05/study-finds-wetter-storms-mean-drier-conditions-over-time?date-from=2021-12-06&page=464The world’s rainfall is increasingly packed into bigger storms and longer dry spells.
5/13/2026
A Dartmouth study shows that annual rainfall in much of the world has consolidated over the past four decades into heavier storms with longer dry periods in between.
The findings are the first to show that a year’s worth of rainfall packed into bigger and wetter storms means less water for aquifers and ecosystems, even if total precipitation increases. Because soil can absorb only so much water at once, what is not soaked up collects on the surface where it’s more readily evaporated.
“It doesn’t matter where you are, more consolidated rainfall means less water is available for the land. We show that this phenomenon is consistent worldwide, what physically accounts for it, and what we should expect going forward,” says Justin Mankin, the study’s senior author and an associate professor of geography.
…
The study projects that rainfall will grow more consolidated as global temperatures rise due to climate change. An increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) could lead to abnormally dry land conditions for 27% of the world’s population, offsetting any rise in total rainfall, Lesk and Mankin report.
…
Lesk, C.S., Mankin, J.S. More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage. Nature 653, 425–432 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7
5/13/2026
A Dartmouth study shows that annual rainfall in much of the world has consolidated over the past four decades into heavier storms with longer dry periods in between.
The findings are the first to show that a year’s worth of rainfall packed into bigger and wetter storms means less water for aquifers and ecosystems, even if total precipitation increases. Because soil can absorb only so much water at once, what is not soaked up collects on the surface where it’s more readily evaporated.
“It doesn’t matter where you are, more consolidated rainfall means less water is available for the land. We show that this phenomenon is consistent worldwide, what physically accounts for it, and what we should expect going forward,” says Justin Mankin, the study’s senior author and an associate professor of geography.
…
The study projects that rainfall will grow more consolidated as global temperatures rise due to climate change. An increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) could lead to abnormally dry land conditions for 27% of the world’s population, offsetting any rise in total rainfall, Lesk and Mankin report.
…