We Told You So: The Costs of Attacking Iran Far Outweigh the Benefits

[BootinUp]

Trump says he was surprised by Iran's response to his attacks. He shouldn't have been. For years, experts have warned of the catastrophic risks.

Joe Cirincione
Mar 31, 2026

Donald Trump says he was surprised by Iran’s reactions to his attacks. “Nobody thought they were going to hit” the Gulf countries, he claimed.

Nonsense. Iran’s actions were completely predictable, and in fact, have long been predicted.

Conservatives in Washington have been talking about attacking Iran ever since a 1979 popular revolution overthrew the dictatorial Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi placed on the Peacock Throne in 1953 by the United States and the United Kingdom. For just as long, experts have warned of the foolishness of such a war. Every president from Ronald Reagan on concluded that the costs far outweighed the risks.

One of the peak campaigns for war on Iran occurred in the 2010-2015 period when President Barack Obama sought a diplomatic solution to Iran’s growing nuclear program.

I was then president of Ploughshares Fund. It was then a global security foundation, funding and connecting experts and advocates in effective, collective campaigns. One of the projects we funded was a report by nationally recognized military and diplomatic leaders to weigh the benefits and costs of military action against Iran.

Published in 2012, the report helped create political space for the successful diplomacy Obama undertook. The next year, Secretary of State John Kerry led a team of highly qualified experts to negotiate an interim agreement (finalized in 2015) that successful blocked all of Iran’s pathway to a bomb.

If Donald Trump had not pulled out of that deal in 2018, Iran would not pose a nuclear threat today. It would not have 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium that it could spin in advanced centrifuges into material for the cores of a bombs within weeks. It prevented an Iran Bomb and an Iran War.

Below, is part of the executive summary of the report. It is followed by excerpts from the full report on the costs of war with Iran.

Continued
https://open.substack.com/pub/joecirincione/p/we-told-you-so-the-costs-of-attacking

[Lovie777]

1. Dumb-ass...............

the whole lot of them.

[Dave Bowman]

2. Of course he was surprised, he's an ignorant fool surrounded by idiots who won't dare contradict him.

That's one of the reasons his stupid idol Adolf crashed and burned, he thought that he was brilliant while just being an average moron when it came to military strategy.

Can the Reaper hurry up, please?

[Norrrm]

3. Attacking Iran met the primary goal.... distraction from the Epstein files.

[BootinUp]

4. Hemlock in large doses cures things in a way. nt

[wcmagumba]

5. Crazy to attack Iran, I went to middle school with a couple of Iranian brothers whose family escaped the Shah, I'm 69...

They were cool and funny guys. Glad I knew them...I remember that song,

[Irish_Dem]

6. Trump only considers the benefits to himself personally.

He had no risk at all, and everything to benefit.
Steal all of Iran's oil, land, assets.

The US military swings the deal for him.

Trump pays nothing, has no personal risk.

[Farmer-Rick]

7. He was going to extort them

For oil or other wealth to line his own pockets like he did Venezuela.

But the Iranian people dared to fight back.

[Irish_Dem]

12. Exactly. That is why he is mad. And retaliating.

He wants revenge for them refusing to go along with the heist.

[OhioBack2Blue]

8. And, now the oil execs and...

...military experts are falling all over themselves to save Donald and the rabies minded republicons from themselves.
They made their bed, let them lie in it!
They certaintly love dishing out, what they call "tough love. " Let them get the personal accountability experience for once! Stopping helping the morans stay in power!

[Amaryllis]

9. In Trump's world, "nobody thought" is accurate, becasue he surrounds himself with sycphants.

[Mustellus]

10. for thirty years, teaching military graduate students ....

Whenever someone bleated "but they are gonna get a nuklar weapon", I'd point out that Iran has invested in every possible way to sink oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Mines. Torpedoes. The Russian Styx mach 4 hypersonic, sea skimming anti ship missile. (Btw, they just bought a bunch of newer Chinese ones that hit mach 6) And 'Captors', torpedoes moored to the sea floor, and triggered by sound. No trail of bubbles as it comes at you from below....

And guess what: The Straits of Hormuz are closed, and Iran hasn't even started shooting yet. Do they really need a nuklar weapon?

[Irish_Dem]

14. Looks like when you have brains you don't need nukes.

[patphil]

11. Nobody thought.

Translation: Trump didn't think.
Thinking is an undiscovered territory for president Trump.

He got suckered into this war by his advisors, by the Israeli's who are always eager to attack any Arab state anywhere in the middle east, and by certain Arab nations that paid him/his family billions to do it.
And now, the only real winner in this war is Russia, who got their sanctions lifted and are free to market their oil anywhere at an incredibly inflated price.
In the mean time, and I do mean mean, the US and the whole world get hammered with higher fuel prices, higher food prices, and higher manufacturing prices for any goods that are affected by the price of oil...which is just about everything.

So now we can see how the whole MAGA movement has been just one big sucker deal for the brain dead zombies that comprise it. Trump and his enablers played on their fears and the big mess we're in is the result.

[BarbD]

13. Now that we're conceding defeat........

Are we so ignorant with hubris that we think Iran is just going to give up as well?