Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof after 2006 Rule Change Proposed by To

[jakeXT]

Stats Show the New England Patriots Became Nearly Fumble-Proof after 2006 Rule Change Proposed by Tom Brady

By Warren Sharp

While speculation exists that “Deflate Gate” was a one time occurrence, data I introduced last week indicated that the phenomena MAY have been an ongoing, long standing issue for the New England Patriots. Today, that possibility looks as clear as day.

Initially, looking at weather data, I noticed the Patriots performed extremely well in the rain, much more so than they were projected. I followed that up by looking at the fumble data, which showed regardless of weather or site, the Patriots prevention of fumbles was nearly impossible. Ironically, both studies saw the same exact starting point: 2007 was the first season where things really changed for the Patriots. Something started in 2007 which is still on-going today.

I wanted to compare the New England Patriots fumble rate from 2000, when HC Bill Belichick first arrived in New England, to the rest of the NFL. Clearly, one thing I found in my prior research was that dome teams fumble substantially less frequently, given they play at least 8+ games out of the elements each year. To keep every team on a more level playing field, I eliminated dome teams from the analysis, grabbed only regular season games, and defined plays as pass attempts+rushes+times sacked. The below results also look only at total fumbles, not just fumbles which are lost. This brought us to the ability to capture touches per fumble.

To really confirm something was dramatically different in New England, starting in 2007 thru present, I compared the 2000-06 time period (when Bill Belichick was their head coach and they won all of their Super Bowls) to the 2007-2014 time period. The beauty of data is the results speak for themselves:




http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007

[Panich52]

1. I suppose the claim would be Brady's preferred scuffed balls easier to hold

But, then again, so would underinflated ones.

Side note: In 2012 USC was found to have illegally deflated footballs during a game against Oregon. Not a new phenom.

[jakeXT]

2. I've read about the student manager, who got blamed

...

Soon after, the school came out with a statement saying the still-unknown student manager “immediately” admitted he deflated the footballs “without the knowledge of, or instruction from, any USC student-athlete, coach, staff member or administrator.”

In the school’s view, that settled it. The student manager had acted alone.

“The compliance department obviously did a very thorough check and research of everything involved to make sure that there was no knowledge of any coaches or players knowing anything about this,” then-head coach Lane Kiffin said at the time.

That’s right. The school said the student manager just randomly decided to deflate the team’s footballs without indication from anyone else that the team might prefer them that way. The student manager was promptly fired. The football program was handed a $25,000 fine.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/28/usc-deflategate_n_6562964.html

[LiberalFighter]

3. It is likely additional factors

In addition to scruffing the balls so they are not as slick the gloves receivers and backs may be of a better quality. That would allow better ball handling. I'm sure as an example when gloves were permitted the ability to catch the footballs increased.

BTW -- it came out today that of the 12 balls involved only 1 was 2 psi below specs. the others were just under the spec or within spec. There is bound to be some pressure reduction with temperature change and other factors such as rain or cold.