NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

[lovemydog]

Saturday January 16
4:35 PM ET CHIEFS AT PATRIOTS
8:15 PM ET PACKERS AT CARDINALS

Sunday January 17
1:05 PM ET SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS
4:40 PM ET STEELERS AT BRONCOS

Followed by the Democratic Debate on NBC. What a weekend. My favorite since it's the last time we get four games.

Here's my picks:
Patriots over Chiefs. I'm rooting for the Chiefs. They've won 11 in a row & Alex Smith is throwing well without turning it over much. It's just tough to go against the Pats at home, especially with Edelman apparently back.
Cardinals over Packers. I think Palmer, Fitzgerald et all should roll over the Packers. But never underestimate Aaron Rogers. It's just that the Pack's offensive line is so injured. And they didn't really beat a tough team last week (Redskins).
Panthers over Seahawks. Toughest call of the week. Seahawks are looking in fine form. Wilson's qb rating is through the roof. But the Panthers are so strong on defense, led by Josh Norman. Seahawks have relied on some miraculous wins in close games recently. They can't keep hoping to pull games out in the final few minutes. I think their luck could run out this time.
Broncos over Steelers. With Antonio Brown out and Roethlesberger not 100% I don't think the Steelers have enough. I expect Manning to start and maybe play the first half. I think the Broncos running game & defense will be their strengths. Of backups quarterbacks, I'll take the Broncos Oswieler over the Steelers Jones.

Make your picks / comments on the games here.

[Dretownblues]

1. Picks

Chiefs vs Pats: as a pats fan I can't go against my team. I think this game will come down to how well the patriots can protect Tom Brady. If they can give him time this will be a runaway, if not it will be a 1-2 possession game.
Cardinals vs Packers: Cardinals in an easy game. They are just too good on both sides of the ball. I think they are the best team left.
Seahawks vs Panthers: I like the panthers here. It will be a very close low scoring game, but RW will commit a couple of turovers and the Panther are good enough to capatilize(unlike the Vikings).
Steelers vs Broncos: this is a hard one to predict. Antiono Brown is out, Big Ben is hurt, the steelers defense is pretty useless. On the other hand, we don't know what Manning will look like. I haven't bought into the hype that he's back(going 5-9 for 70 yrds is not back). I'll say steelers, because I don't see the Broncos winning with Manning at QB.

[opiate69]

2. I was 3 out of 4 last week... hopefully I can keep it going.

Chiefs - Hard to pick Alex Smith over Brady, but I think the Pats are a ripe for a beating.
Cardinals - Much as I hate Arians, I think the Cardinals are the more healthy team right now.
Seahawks - Seahawks usually respond well to subpar performances - although the weather in Minnesota had an effect that can't be overstated.
Broncos - Worthlessburger's ability to throw the ball downfield is a big, big question with the shoulder injury.

[Wounded Bear]

3. NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Patsies over Chiefs...Chefs have been on a tear, but against mostly inferior QBs. We'll see.

Cards over the Pack...Redbirds are for real. Pack are pretenders this season.

Pitt over Donkos...especially if Manning starts. Besides, the "Rooney rule of flag distribution" will favor them.

Seahawks over the Kitties...one early season win erases nothing. The 'Hawks own the Panthers, especially in the post-season.

[Silent_Greene]

4. *

*I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about the Chiefs. It's gonna be a close game. I'm saying the Patriots win 30-27.

[draa]

5. Cool, heres my picks.

1. Pats - Well duh, even with injuries they still have Tom Brady. How do you pick against him at home. EVER. I also believe the Chiefs are in for a letdown. They've won 11 in a row and I don't see that continuing against the Pats. Home field advantage and Tom Brady? Give it to the Pats.

2. Cards - I think Carson Palmer is playing some of his best football right now and the Pack, despite having Rodgers, have been so spotty this season that you never know which team you'll get. Playing at home should also help the Cards and I'm a huge fan of Bruce Arians so I'll stick with them.

3. Panthers - Has Cam Newton turned the corner into elite status? I believe he has. Can he beat a really good Wilson led Hawks? Maybe. I'll give Carolina the edge because of their record and playing at home. It doesn't hurt that they're the better team though and unless the Hawks can find a run game the Panthers win.

4. Broncos - I'm wavering on this pick. I like Denver at home but much like Green Bay I'm not sold on what I've watched from them this year. Having Peyton Manning under center might help but his arm is done and that's been apparent for some time. That said, so is Roethlisberger's arm. His injury will limit his effectiveness and I'm not certain how he'll do. For that reason I'll give the Broncos the edge (playing at a mile high is tough).

[Goblinmonger]

6. Well, I was .500 last week, so let's see if I can improve.

Chiefs--I think the Chiefs are for real
Cardinals--I don't think the Packers are for real
Panthers--Seattle's offense can be shut down
Steelers--Steelers are a buzzsaw

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

7. Picks!

New England had an un-New England-like off week. One star is hospitalized after smoking synthetic pot, Belichick shows up with a black eye, and Gronk missed 2 practices this week. WTF? I didn't pick NE to get to the SB anyway.

I'm taking KC


Many people don't think Carolina is the real deal. I do. I think they are solid at every phase.

I'm taking Carolina


Still not a believer in GB. Next week, I won't be a believer in Arizona.

Arizona wins


Brown is out for Pittsburg! I would have picked Denver anyway.

Denver

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

8. Cool! I'm alone with my picks

I can win DU

[restorefreedom]

9. pats, cardinals, panthers, steelers. nt

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

10. Effing Pats

[trof]

11. Pats 21-6 3 rd Q. GO PATS!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

12. I hope you're rooting for New England because in 2013 you made a bet that...

both the Tide and Pats would win the championships in 2014 and 2015.

My guess is, that's the only explanation.

[trof]

13. Nope, not even close.

Alabama grad, class of '63.
Daughter and family live near Boston.
Go Pats.
ROLL TIDE!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

14. You just can't trust Carson Palmer

[opiate69]

15. Or Alex Smith... I should have known better...

[JonLP24]

19. league leader in yppa

franchise record setting qb. I feel pretty good about him

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

20. No doubt he's your quintessential Fantasy Football QB

but you have to expect something stupid to happen. Lucky it didn't cost him the game. But he's got another chance to end the Cards season.

But don't let that stop you from putting him at the top of your Fantasy Football draft board. He produces all right.

[JonLP24]

21. I dont play ff

im an az fan and I couldnt be more satisfied but all qbs make mistakes but for some reason they are magnified with Palmer. he had over 300 yds off of 30_35 attempts.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

22. He's like Cutler. If you've followed their careers, every mistake is magnified

because they've made critical mistakes throughout their careers. Good QBs, but complete dumbshits. You just can't trust guys like Palmer and Cutler.

Edit: Alternatively, and more accurately, ever success is magnified.

[JonLP24]

24. he is a hell a lot better than cutler

denver is my afc team so I know cutler. palmer is far from dump but more importantly he is a very confident player and always forget the mistakes, move on and win the game. go back 4 seasons and compare with manning, brady, and Wilson

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

25. He's absolutely Cutler, but Cutler is a lot tougher.

Cutler had a couple of Fantasy Football, pro-bowl seasons, too.

[JonLP24]

26. 8.7 ypa

I doubt cutler has had a mvp level season. big difference. az routinely defeated cutler Chicago. best season all time in chi_st. louis_az history

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

29. You're married to FF stats. Can't argue with guys like you

Both will break your heart. Can't trust them. Palmer was a freak in Oakland but cursed by stupid decisions.

[JonLP24]

32. The Super Bowl FPI favorite is ...

First, Arizona is perhaps the most complete team in the NFL. The Cardinals have ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency for 15 straight weeks and are projected to have the most efficient offense and third-most-efficient defense of any playoff team this postseason.

It’s easy to focus on Arizona’s most recent loss, to the Seahawks, but that is one game in a 16-game sample. In their other 15 games, the Cardinals were the most dominant and consistent team in the NFL.

Entering Week 17, Arizona had an NFL-best plus-13.7 scoring margin and won six games by at least 23 points, tied for the most in a season since the 1996 Packers.

Although some quarterbacks have had better six- or seven-game stretches than Carson Palmer, no quarterback was more consistently efficient over the course of the entire season. He led the league in Total QBR and became the first player since Tom Brady in 2007 to post an above-average QBR in each of his first 15 games.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113164/and-the-super-bowl-fpi-favorite-is

In Oakland he was among the leaders in YPA but lead the league in picks. He threw a lot his first season due to forcing the ball to Fitzgerald (young AZ qbs before him often forced the ball to Fitzgerald but the following season, under Arians' system he stopped and I couldn't be more satisfied. He gives Arizona the best chance to win out of any QB available but he led them to 10-6 season, Arizona began the next one 9-2 and somewhere around there Palmer got a season ending injury from the St. Louis defensive line. This season led them to #2 all time ppg average.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

23. You're probably giving Palmer props for that late TD pass to Floyd that

put the Cards up 17-13. That's an example of magnifying his successes.

That was a pass that never had a chance because it hit the elbow of the defender, but by dumbshit luck, was deflected right to Floyd.

[JonLP24]

28. dumbshit luck is why the game went into ot

why a face to the mask negated 99 yd int. besides even if that pass was incomplete az still had more downs at the 10

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

30. What does that have to do with magnifying Palmer's successes?

I think your best point was his game is always magnified. He's a stat machine. That has a lot to do with the way he's perceived. His failures are a function of people losing their objectivity because he's a stat machine.

[JonLP24]

31. ypa passing is the most predictive stat

followed by defensive ypa. arizona ranking in both categories suggests they have the best odds to win super bowl.

im on a phone so difficult to make my points well

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

33. That's cool. I'm only staying engaged because Carolina is destroying Seattle :(

The most important thing is an OL. Then solid RBs who can pass protect and double as receivers. WRs next, but I'd put a TE right up their.

Cutler had it all in 2013, and not surprisingly, made few errors and had a Pro-Bowl season. Aside from 2013, he's gotten the living shit kicked out of him and, not surprisingly, made dumbass decisions. A few weeks ago, Rodgers lost 2 OL and, without receivers, played like he was completely lost and got pounded. Looked like less than mediocre. But he's not a dumbshit, and when he got his line back, he became a genius again. Aside from 2013, Cutler has never had the luxury of having a supporting cast and playing in the same system. And he's a dumbshit.

He's like Adrian Peterson. You know Peterson is going to fumble, so he's actually a liability in a close game. At least I know that. At least you can bench Peterson. The Cardinals are stuck with Palmer and his propensity to make errors.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

35. I reject your premise. If Carson makes bad decisions next week...

I'll come looking for you

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

40. Carolina now up 10-0 and Arians can't hide your guy Palmer anymore

He's off to a shit start. Lucky he hasn't thrown an int already.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

41. That interception in the endzone at 24-7 is quintessential Palmer

He may finish the game with 400 yards, but they will lose, and it's because you cannot trust this guy in a big game. He's unsettled then panics which leads to really poor decisions.

[JonLP24]

42. We dont know how much the injured

index finger is affecting his passes but there was so much wrong w muffs, drops, and bad bounces plus they couldnt stop cam putting them in a hole where I would expect mistakes from any qb. all that said he was one of the best when trailing. we will see what happens next year.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

16. Here we go folks! GB 80 yards, 115 seconds to play

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

17. This is close! May have to stay with the call because I couldn't see the tip of the ball

touch the ground

[lovemydog]

18. Pats dismantled the Chiefs.

I don't think the Chiefs ever had a lead. Brady & Gronkowski led the way for the Patriots. Of course.

Cardinals defeat the Packers in overtime. Another crazy whacky can't believe I just saw that game. Rogers made some phenomenal throws especially in the fourth quarter. Future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald came through for the Cards with some game saving & game winning catches, runs & dives. Quarterback Carson Palmer was erratic (threw two interceptions) but had some gritty plays as well.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

27. That int in the SB was the worst decision Wilson every made

until that int.

[lovemydog]

36. Panthers huge first half carried them

through the Seahawks game.

Broncos defense & some good running got them past the Steelers.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

37. A sweep yesterday gets me to 5-3 in my picks

[lovemydog]

38. It got me to 6-2.

We both swept this week by picking all four home teams. Good going!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

39. I picked KC, was 3-3 going into Sunday