Hillary Clintons early-voting lead in Florida was mathematically insurmountable

[Maraya1969]

Last edited Tue Nov 29, 2016, 12:46 PM - Edit history (1)

Rigged election: Hillary Clinton’s early-voting lead in Florida was mathematically insurmountable

(EDIT: I want to add this question, which can't be answered empirically but raises a real question in my mind. What is the statistical probability that about 99% of all the statistical models, most of the polls and the exit polls all predicted a Clinton win yet Trump won? We are looking at a very large statistical anomaly I believe. I don't think that people being embarrassed to admit voting for Trump has that much weight since most polls are taken over the phone and are anonymous)

Of the numerous reasons why most observers on both sides expected Hillary Clinton win the 2016 election heading into Election Day, perhaps the most glaring was the fact that she had seemingly already won the state of Florida based on early-voting alone. It’s why it came as such a shock when Donald Trump somehow pulled off the upset in the state by one percent of the vote, a difference which would have swung the entire election. But in yet another piece of evidence that the voting tallies may have been rigged, a closer examination of the early-voting numbers suggests that Trump’s victory in Florida wasn’t just unlikely – it was mathematically insurmountable.

Here’s what we know about Florida for sure: of the 9.1 million people who voted in the state, roughly seventy percent of them – or 6.6 million people – voted early. The early voters consisted of only slightly more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. However, the most prominent exit poll of Florida early voters showed that 28% of registered Republicans had voted for Hillary Clinton, with just 6% of registered Democrats having voted for Trump. Republican strategist Mike Murphy expressed skepticism that the number could have been that high, but even he pegged it as being closer to the mid-teens.

When you do the math, you see that Hillary Clinton had such a massive early voting lead in her pocket in Florida that – depending on which end of the crossover vote totals you want to lean toward – it turns out Donald Trump would have needed to get somewhere between 59% and 71% of the Election Day voting in the state in order to catch up. Here’s the breakdown, based on numbers available from the state of Florida’s official early vote tallies:


http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/rigged-election-hillary-clintons-early-voting-lead-florida-mathematically-insurmountable/114/

[iluvtennis]

1. I just recall on election night that Hillary was leading in FL by 300K something votes, ...

...and 30 seconds later CNN reported that lead had evaporated and Trump was up by 100K something. It was unbelievable. But as Florida has closed their books, doesn't look like we can ask for a manual recount.

[GWC58]

2. No surprise there!

Just more trickery from the "Republi-cheat" party!! 👺

[Maraya1969]

13. Like in 2000 when FL and the presidency was called for Al Gore by most news agencies

then Fox called it for Bush. It was fraud then too.

What do you mean they closed their books? Can't they be forced to do a recount?

[triron]

20. Similarly

she was up to 97% chance of winning Fla. on Predictwise. Then all of a sudden probabilities dropped like an anvil. Something weird happened,

[mnhtnbb]

3. I was surprised at the same thing in North Carolina: Hillary up 150,000 votes

from the early voting numbers that rolled in first. I did not see how Trump could overcome a lead like that,
but sure enough, the lead dwindled as the night went on. Made no sense to me because even when
the pockets of deep blue in NC reported, Trump kept closing and then overtaking her.

[iluvtennis]

19. yup, doesn't pass the smell test

[sagesnow]

4. Election Integrity2020

There needs to be a system in place to randomly audit/recount 10% of precints across the country.
How do we start funding it now?

[LisaL]

5. What they are calling an "exit poll" was actually a phone/on-line poll of

300 some people who already voted. It was discussed here at the time it came out. While we were all excited at the time, this is hardly a proof that Hillary had insurmountable lead.

[hueymahl]

12. Thanks

There is a lot of tinfoil hat theories being espoused on DU these days. Need to shut them down as fast as possible so when real evidence of fraud is discovered, it won't be lumped in with all the other BS.

[Maraya1969]

14. What is the statistical probability that 98% of statistical models and all of the exit polls

predicted Hillary the winner and yet Trump won?

I don't know if you can give a number to this but to me it is an enormous improbability. The only thing that Trump won was the electoral college. Everything else said he lost.

And this thing about people not wanting to admit to voting for Trump; why would they care if they are anonymous and on the phone?

[triron]

17. Who is "they"?

What is your source?

[Maraya1969]

21. 538, Princeton Consortium, The BETTING sites, All of the early voting that had Hillary

ahead like FL where Trump won.

I checked the money people were putting out and Clinton was paying out way less that Trump. Trump was like the horse that never won that would pay out big.

[triron]

22. My post was directed at another DUer.

I agree with you 100%. Trump almost certainly did not win Florida, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Probably not Michigan or ( less probably) not North Carolina.

[Ligyron]

6. I still think a recount in FL would help.

It's been certified already and won't change the outcome but, her actually having won FL would demonstrate clearly that Trump's presidency is illegitimate.

Dems being able to point to this, and her winning the popular vote out repeatedly over the next 4 years would weaponize our message going forward.

[Maraya1969]

15. Interesting that they certified it before all states were done counting! Remember 2000?

[Achilleaze]

7. Do the math Russian-Republican skullduggery

[LaydeeBug]

9. This. Nt

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. November 1, at DU: Nate Silver moved Florida (and North Carolina) to Trump...

Nate Silver moved Florida (and North Carolina) to Trump...

in the now cast and polls plus. Polls only remains blue. Remember folks the only poll that matters is the election day poll. Also Why does 538 polls change so fast?

Update: Polls only has also now turned red.
Update2: Polls only has now turned bad to blue! Why is it changing so much?
Update3: NC goes red in polls-plus forecast.

[B2G]

10. 311 voters?

Come on.

And exit polls have proven to be very unreliable...it all recent elections.

[mythology]

11. Basing a claim of a mathematical impossibility on exit polls

Is stupid.

Exit polls of early voting are even more fraught with errors than exit polling at polling places.

These claims of fraud are just not supported by any evidence.

[Maraya1969]

16. No. Combine the exit polls with all the statistical models and you get a situation

where basically the only thing that Trump won was the electoral college. He lost in all the models, the vast majority of polls and the exit polls.

[triron]

18. knr

[triron]

23. knr

[triron]

24. knr