2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf this is true, something is really stinking to high heaven H gets 23,700 votes back in PA.
With a recount effort now underway in the three razor-tight swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, it turns out Hillary Clinton has already moved closer to winning those states than had originally been announced. In the past two weeks Michigan and Wisconsin have both voluntarily revised the size of Donald Trumps win downward by thousands of votes each. And now Pennsylvania has shrunk the size of Trumps win by tens of thousands of votes.
Its important to understand that these revisions have been made by the states before the recounts even got underway. These shifts in the vote totals have been based on precincts revising their own numbers, either because they caught errors of their own accord, or in some instances because internet gawkers spotted numerical impossibilities that forced those precincts to check themselves. But the sudden shift in Pennsylvania voting totals is dramatic, in that it wipes out around one-third of Trumps lead in the state ahead of the recount.
Heres what happened: according to this USA Today article and several other sources, the vote totals in Pennsylvania had Donald Trump winning by 70,638 votes a number which was often quoted as a reason for why Hillary Clinton would supposedly have no chance of flipping the state in a recount. But earlier today, the respected Decision Desk HQ posted the newly revised totals from Pennsylvania, which have Donald Trump ahead by just 46,938 votes. That means Trumps lead in the state has now shrunk by 23,700 votes, based on what it says are newly revised numbers out of Philadelphia.
http://www.palmerreport.com/news/hillary-clinton-catches-20000-votes-pennsylvania-recount-begins/305/
jonno99
(2,620 posts)to the totals.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,391 posts)provisional ballots and absentees.
Amishman
(5,843 posts)this type of thing is the reason it takes them a few weeks to release the official numbers. They do a lot of counting and checking, which is why the numbers change.
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)These vote counters are under scrutiny so they are trying to appear more proper and not dispose of votes on arbitrary grounds.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)requiring all provisional ballots to be counted.
still_one
(96,875 posts)but California counts ALL ballots including provisional ones. NOTHING is thrown away
So he was absolutely wrong in regard to California during the primaries.
Someone also posted a few days ago Ohio does the same thing
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,391 posts)valid provisional ballots are counted, invalid ones are tossed; however, voters have until the Monday after the election to provide the required documentation in order for the ballot to be counted, and voters have the right to be there with the county election board meets to decide on which ballots will be counted and which won't.
still_one
(96,875 posts)is registered to vote, etc.
SickOfTheOnePct
(7,391 posts)One thing I like about the way CA does provisional ballots, and something I wish VA would switch to is the out-of-precinct voting. In CA, if you vote out of precinct, so long as you're registered, they'll still count your votes for statewide candidates. In VA, if you vote out of precinct, they toss the whole ballot.
mcar
(43,660 posts)Makes no sense.
Amishman
(5,843 posts)Even with this reduction in the margin, it still is more than the 0.5% to trigger a close election auto-recount.
MI is the closest and was not called for a while, because they did do an automatic recount.
WI have don't know enough about to say. If we find anything funny, it might be there. (but i doubt it)
texasmomof3
(108 posts)They get an initial count and then they go back and recount to double check and it takes weeks. That is why Michigan just certified their vote last week.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)creates the conditions that mean Hillary wins that state, don't you think the entire country will go batshit crazy about how it could have happened.. It will undermine the entire election system
Skittles
(160,578 posts)something was seriously wrong with this election, and that's besides the fact that Hillary had +2.5 million votes - we're talking a real bullshit electoral scenario - Trump just happens to get exactly what he needed - no wonder he "knew" he would win - he even spiffied up his hair in preparation
ificandream
(10,845 posts)... looking forward to the inevitable book by an investigative reporter who uncovers it all.
humbled_opinion
(4,423 posts)the scope of the conspiracy that would be required, I understand we are talking about reliably blue states here, but it isn't like the machines are connected to the internet so there couldn't be a hack in the conventional sense, and aren't there rules that Democratic and Republican poll watchers would ensure machines were not left alone on election day, anyway my point is if one states results get nullified because of fraud, there will be no coming back from that.
radius777
(3,814 posts)therefore no formal conspiracy is required.
Comey, FBI, Rudy, Putin, Wiki, Trumper activists, GOP decades long voter suppression laws, alt-left/alt-right hatred of Hillary/Clintons/Obama, Trump talking up the idea that the other side is cheating therefore his side may need to cheat and intimidate also. Psychological projection.
spooky3
(36,532 posts)I don't understand what appears to be some people's argument that it is better to hide a flawed count than to show citizens we can self correct and have integrity.
maddiemom
(5,108 posts)radius777
(3,814 posts)stolen in broad daylight, i.e. Comey, Wiki, Rudy, repeal of the VRA, voter suppression, intimidation, etc.
The polling averages consistently showed her leads which increased in the final month after she won all three debates, and all major prediction models showed her with strong odds of winning. Nobody in 68 years (since iirc 1948) has lost when having such strong/consistent leads that late in the game.
Comey/FBI intentionally threw threw the race into disarray, and then the Trump/GOP minions "finished the job" in the swing states.
TrollBuster9090
(6,032 posts)the electoral equivalent of the Olympic Committee announcing that they've got a new test that's guaranteed to detect the use of performance enhancing steroids on the first day of the Olympics, and a whole bunch of athletes suddenly decide to go home because they forgot they left their curling irons on. (ie-local returning officers who suddenly decided that they'd made 'adding errors' because it looks better if THEY catch the 'error' before the recount officials do.)
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,764 posts)The only good that I can see is that in 2006 Dems came roaring back. Otherwise, vote tampering continues. And we've lost democracy.
byronius
(7,649 posts)I would absolutely insist on it. And I do not think it should have to be paid for privately. That's FUCKING RIDICULOUS.
In fact, if voting machines had malfunctioned or if citizens were denied the right to vote because of clerical errors in heavily Trump-favored districts, I would insist that they be given a second opportunity after great scrutiny of the local election systems and with all necessary resources provided, and furthermore that no vote be 'certified' until representatives from all parties are satisfied.
I feel this way because I am an American.
Citizen trust in the counting of the votes is paramount. More important than anything. The primary function of a democratic system.
Their reticence is evidence of criminal wrongdoing and treason.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)What recounts will do is give his election some genuine legitimacy.
spooky3
(36,532 posts)Let's wait and see.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)spooky3
(36,532 posts)Change any outcome for WI, MU, or PA, you can't say whether the exit polls were correct for those states.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)Wishful as that may be.
spooky3
(36,532 posts)Assessing the exit poll results and the extent to which you view them as consistent with the actual results doesn't make sense until all results are certified including the recounts.
And, a bigger question is whether the polls taken BEFORE voting started were truly wrong and if so, why.
jmg257
(11,996 posts)The pre-election polls vs the results were "suspicious", according to a computer scientist
"Were this years deviations from pre-election polls the results of a cyberattack? Probably not. I believe the most likely explanation is that the polls were systematically wrong, rather than that the election was hacked."
J. Halderman
https://medium.com/@jhalderm/want-to-know-if-the-election-was-hacked-look-at-the-ballots-c61a6113b0ba#.168pwqmmx
We also had these guys:
"Some data scientists and political statisticians, including FiveThirtyEights Nate Silver and The New York Times Nate Cohn, cast doubt on the claims, which compared voting in counties that used paper ballots with those that used electronic machines. Silver and Cohn said the suspicious results disappear when controlling for demographic factors like race and education"
But you are right - why not be sure? At the cost of a few million bucks - better to confirm the election results whichever way they go, and move on.
We did pick up a vote in Wisconsin!
ffr
(23,136 posts)Dig deeper.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)I was highly suspicious of Michigan right off the bat because the Detroit Free Press had called the state early on for Hillary Clinton on election night.
womanofthehills
(9,374 posts)I hope Jill gets to check out the provisional ballots too.
tandem5
(2,077 posts)Last edited Fri Dec 2, 2016, 01:38 AM - Edit history (1)
TheFrenchRazor
(2,116 posts)Amishman
(5,843 posts)It is from the largest county, which would take the longest to process and have the most provisional and absentee ballots. It also is the bluest county in the state.
UCmeNdc
(9,650 posts)Do a full recount!
Achilleaze
(15,543 posts)Full recount now.
BSdetect
(9,048 posts)Sorry America, this system is stupid beyond belief.
Land Shark
(6,348 posts)The media acts like it is all over but it's not. There are 35 days to compete counting.
The PA figures appear to be the total of absentees plus provisionals in the city of Philadelphia, where HRC got 82% of the machine vote and 85.5% of provisionals and 85% of absentees. Philly had not reported since 11/9.
When it says "100% of PRECINCTS reporting," note the word "precincts." In some places 100% will include absentees and mail vote, in others not. There needs to be several asterisks next to the figure of 100% reporting.