I think the reason that many working-class men voted for Rump is because they love tough guys and they were fooled

[Self Esteem]

74. It is possible 2024 turns out to be an anomaly election.

But my concern is that, especially among men, the trend has been there.

In 2012, Obama won Black men 87-11 and Hispanic men 65-33. That's a margin of +76 and +32 respectively.

In 2016, Clinton won Black men 82-13 and Hispanic men 63-32. That's a margin of +69 and +31 respectively.

So, Clinton did seven-points worse than Obama among Black men and one-point worse among Hispanic men.

In 2020, Biden won Black men 79-19 and Hispanic men 59-36. That's a margin of +60 and +23 respectively.

Biden did nine-points worse than Hillary among Black men (and 16 points worse compared to Obama) and eight-points worse among Hispanic men (and nine worse than Obama).

In 2024, Harris won Black men 77-21 and lost Hispanic men 54-44. That's a margin of +56 and -10 respectively.

Harris did four-points worse among Black men than Biden and 33 points worse among Hispanic men (and 41 points worse than Hillary).

There is an obvious trend that goes beyond just 2024.

The Democrats' margin among Black men has decreased each election cycle:

2012: +76
2016: +69
2020: +60
2024: +56

That's a twenty-point drop since Obama's reelection.

Among Hispanics, it's way worse because not only were the margins smaller to start but because Hispanics continue to be one of the fastest growing demographics in the US and Democrats completely collapsed among Hispanic men.

Their decrease:

2012: +32
2016: +31
2020: +23
2024: -10

Harris did 42 points worse among Hispanic men than Obama.

Maybe some of it is just the nature of the race and the complexities of 2024.

But the trend isn't a one-election cycle issue. It's consistent. Democrats have been losing support among their largest demographics at a far higher level than Republicans.

Harris did one-point better among white men than Biden did in 2020. She did nine-points better than Biden among white women.

But she also did worse among Black women and Hispanic women - on top of significantly worse among Black men and Hispanic men.

That's not sustainable for the party and we need to figure it out. That's the irony about this race: Harris improved Democrats' numbers among a constituency they were bleeding support out since the 1960s! But she did worse than Mondale among Black and Hispanic voters.