The big funds and banks and brokerages are mostly still touting new highs by the end of this year, though Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank Canada have lowered their estimates and increased their probability assessment of risk of recession.
Judging by headlines on MarketWatch and Barrons, there are lots of articles about stock picks for this or that, Tesla Bull A expects higher prices for reason Y, how to buy defensive stocks, along with articles about tariff jitters and uncertainty. An uptick in jitters articles today, feels like.
It pays to take a bit of a contrarian stance. In January, there were many articles about a bright future for business with only a few about doubts. That is toppish. I don't know what Business Week (now Bloomberg Businessweek) is doing these weeks, but there was an old trope with a bunch of truth behind it that if its cover declared that there was an ongoing strong bull market, then that was a sign of a top.
They don't have many BusinessWeek covers but they have many others on this fascinating web page with charts and correlations.
https://alphacubedinvestments.com/magazines/
RBC: https://www.rbccm.com/en/story/story.page?dcr=templatedata/article/story/data/2025/03/walking-through-the-math-behind-our-updated-sp-500-forecasts
The big things you need to know:
We’ve lowered our YE 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,200 from 6,600.
We’ve lowered our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $264 from $271.
Among other adjustments, our new price target and EPS forecast embed the updated views of RBC’s Economics and Rates strategy team which were released last week.
We have updated our year-end 2025 bear case for the S&P 500, which we’ve lowered from 5,775 to 5,550.
Fourth, some of the vibes we’ve been tracking are starting to look too extreme to us (in terms of their negativity), but others have more room to go lower.
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