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Fiendish Thingy

(24,038 posts)

8. IIRC, Atlas significantly and consistently over samples Republicans

Reply to Polybius (Reply #4)

Sat May 16, 2026, 01:05 PM

Yesterday

Who knew in 2024 that 9 million fewer voters, mostly Dems and independents, would not show up compared to 2020?

I think they also predicted republicans would have a 40 seat majority in the house, but nobody talks about that.

From Wikipedia:

Why the "Bias" label persists:Atlas’s heavy reliance on big-data algorithms means that when their weighting models capture the "silent" or anti-establishment voter perfectly, their results look genius. However, when their models overcorrect or misfire, the raw data shows strong conservative-leaning biases that diverge significantly from consensus averages.

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Highlight:

Interesting poll on potential 2028 candidates (Vance loses his lead to Rubio, AOC ahead of Harris and Newsom) [View all] Polybius Yesterday OP

AOC being President would be a dream come true for me mvd Yesterday #1

AOC being the Dem nominee would result in a nightmare for all of us. RandomNumbers Yesterday #5

Well, it's a ways away. I'll give her a chance mvd Yesterday #6

Thank you for the reality check. yellow dahlia Yesterday #10

While encouraging, it should be noted that Atlas is a highly biased RW pollster Fiendish Thingy Yesterday #2

They were the most accurate polling organization in each of the last two presidential elections BeyondGeography Yesterday #3

It was called biased because certain people here didn't like their poll numbers, and laughed at them Polybius Yesterday #4

IIRC, Atlas significantly and consistently over samples Republicans Fiendish Thingy Yesterday #8

"Who knew in 2024 that 9 million fewer voters" Polybius 2 hrs ago #13

What does your crystal ball say about turnout in 2026 vs 2022? Nt Fiendish Thingy 2 hrs ago #14

I really hate "polls." gulliver Yesterday #7

The Republican side looks realistic (Rubio vs Vance), but the Democratic side is just early name recognition Midwestern Democrat Yesterday #9

Agreed. My top contenders are Mark Kelly and Chris Murphy. yellow dahlia Yesterday #11

These numbers are kind of amusing fujiyamasan 23 hrs ago #12

It is a massive outlier: Celerity 2 hrs ago #15