I Told You The Price Of Crude Is Being Rigged

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OPEC+ Increases Oil Production Despite Strait of Hormuz Blockade
OPEC+ — the alliance of OPEC and allied producers — has approved a 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil output for July 2026, marking the fourth consecutive month of higher production targets UPI+1. The move comes despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed since February 2026 due to the ongoing U.S.–Iran war, which has cut global oil flows through the chokepoint and created the largest supply disruption in decades UPI+1.

Who’s Involved
The decision was made by seven core OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman UPI+1. The United Arab Emirates, OPEC’s third-largest producer, left the group in May, reducing the cartel’s size and altering its production dynamics CNA+1.

Context and Impact
Market conditions: OPEC+ is gradually unwinding a 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed in 2023, with about 567,000 bpd of that cut to be returned by July CNA.

Real-world output: Despite the target hike, actual OPEC+ production has fallen sharply — averaging 33.19 million bpd in April 2026 compared to 42.77 million bpd in February, due to export cuts by Gulf members CNA+1.

Strait of Hormuz: The closure has blocked roughly 20% of global oil supply from passing through, making the July increase largely symbolic in terms of actual market impact UPI+1.

Analyst view: Experts like Jorge Leon of Rystad note that “an OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” warning that reopening could quickly shift markets from shortage fears to surplus concerns CNA+1.

Strategic Considerations
OPEC+ members say the July hike is part of a cautious approach to support market stability, with flexibility to pause, accelerate, or reverse production changes depending on conditions TheCable+1. The group also reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduced volumes from January 2024 through December 2026 TheCable.

Oil Prices
As of mid-June, Brent crude was around $93 per barrel, down from near $72 before the war, reflecting some easing of market anxiety over a potential reopening of the Strait CNA+1.

In summary: OPEC+ is raising output targets to manage market expectations, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz severely limits the practical effect of these increases, keeping oil markets volatile and dependent on geopolitical developments.