Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected; spending increases 0.4%

[progree]

8. Graphs 3 month rolling average and month by month. Text still in progress

Just for a quick look at the graphs. I'm still working on the blah blah part

I'm not a big fan of the PCE, because it is a chained price index. It all boils down to is that it includes the effects of consumers switching to lower grade items, so, for example if in the face of high beef prices, consumers switch to chicken and beans, that lowers the reported meat and food PCE inflation numbers. (The reverse also happens too)

For that reason, I prefer the CPI, which has less of that.

But the PCE, especially the Core PCE, is what the Fed favors, so anyone trying to predict what the Fed might do needs to focus on the Core PCE, and not the CPI measures

The Fed favors the CORE measures for forecasting FUTURE inflation, as shown by analysis of the data.

I annualize them all to be easy to compare to each other, and to compare to the FED's 2% goal. I use the actual index values rather than the one-digit changes that are commonly reported in the media. Links to the data are with the graphs.

ALL the numbers are the seasonally adjusted ones


REGULAR ALL ITEMS PCE
BEA.gov News release: https://www.bea.gov/ and click on "Personal Income and Outlays" or "Personal Income"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI


CORE PCE:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE


REGULAR ALL ITEMS CPI (released 3/12/25)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0


CORE CPI (released 3/12/25):
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E


LBN thread on CPI inflation, 3/12/25:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143416133