https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-report-shows-white-collar-152518234.html
SCROLL DOWN PAST the Yahoo Finance article to find the Quartz article.
The topline number � 63,000 private-sector payroll jobs added in February, for the best showing since July 2025 � appears, at first, to be good news.
But glancing even just a few lines down the report changes the story and brings something alarming into view, with the ADP table showing that professional and business services shed 30,000 jobs last month. This is the category encompassing lawyers, consultants, accountants, marketers, and administrative positions � a broad swathe of the white-collar knowledge economy, at least within this type of reporting.
The headline number appears positive only because education and health services added 58,000 positions, a category driven by health care hiring that is only distantly related to trends in more elastic sectors and that, in large part, reflects growing health care demand caused by an aging population. Construction also added 19,000 jobs, helping obscure losses in other areas; experts say the growth of data centers is driving the mini-boom in the sector even as AI buildout spending may be a negative indicator for white-collar demand.
What's more, the same report reveals that January's already-weak job numbers have been revised from 22,000 down to 11,000. This means ADP's job numbers are worse than initial reporting has portrayed in recent times, and it roughly follows trends of downward revision in government statistics over the past year ((IOW expect the 63,000 jobs to be revised down -progree))
. . .
The reward for job-changers - historically one of the labor market's most reliable signals of worker leverage - has now hit a record low.
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Somebody asked about past jobs numbers --
For a history of PRIVATE SECTOR jobs gains (this from the BLS):
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
I don't have a link to ADP's historic past numbers (which are private sector jobs), I'd certainly put it here if I had it.
All non-farm payroll jobs from the BLS (this is the headliner jobs number from the "First Friday" jobs report, which includes government jobs):
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
BTW, the next "First Friday" job report is scheduled for this Friday March 6.
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Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
The old number:
150,000 jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
The new number:
57,000 +/- 25,000 at a 90% confidence interval (think Heinz 57 varieties)
FFI:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143563268#post4
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