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Australia

In reply to the discussion: How Long Can Labor Survive? [View all]

Matilda

(6,384 posts)
4. I have a confession to make:
Thu May 10, 2012, 09:25 PM
May 2012

I think Christopher Pyne is a good parliamentary performer. No, I don't like his politics, but it's interesting that not once this week did we see Abbott calling for the usual suspension of standing orders - it was Pyne every time. Makes you wonder why they're trying to hide Abbott. Pyne is on the ball and can think on his feet, which neither Abbott, Hockey, Bishop or Robb can do. The only other Lib to equal his ability is Malcolm Turnbull, and Abbott is careful not to give him much to say – he'd like people to forget that Turnbull exists, because if Abbot is scared of anybody, it's Malcolm.

The Lib who was accused of stealing is Senator Mary Jo Fisher - she was acquitted of that charge, but found guilty of assaulting a security guy. She's still in the Senate and has voted on 95 bills. Yes, it's one rule for them and another for Labor. But Thomson is damaging Labor, not least because that's all the media is focussing on.

Peter Costello can't come back until the next election, so he couldn't lead the party unless he did a Campbell Newman, which is not going to happen. Finding a seat won't be easy - he always thought he was entitled to be handed the leadership, but now he's yesterday's man. Kelly O'Dwyer won't be stepping aside - can't stand the woman, but she's one of the Libs rising stars.

Labor's biggest handicap is, unfortunately, Julia Gillard. She's smart and a good debater, but she lacks warmth and the ability to communicate. And she just isn't trusted. Biggest mistake she made was knifing Rudd - if she'd waited, the leadership would have come to her at the right time. No matter how justified the caucus think they were, people like Rudd and they haven't forgiven Julia.
And she's backflipped on too many policy issues - in some she had no choice, but too often she sacrificed long-term promises for short-term gain. I truly don't know what Julia really believes in, because her words aren't backed up by actions.

They're stuck with her now, and the party will go down with her. Her ratings may go up between now and the election, but not enough to make a difference to the outcome. Australians will live to regret electing Abbott, and I think he'll be a one-term prime minister because he really lacks the intellectual ability and the strength to make good policy and make it work. But he will do a lot of damage before he's replaced, probably with Turnbull.

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