Breaking: Kezia Dugdale steps down as Scottish Labour leader

[Denzil_DC]

30. YouGov: "Why the Labour centrists stand a better chance in Scotland"

Kezia Dugdale’s recent resignation means that for the third successive summer year Labour will have a leadership contest. However, this contest will take place amongst Scottish party members and not the UK wide “selectorate” that twice voted for Jeremy Corbyn.

This may make a difference in terms of what kind of candidate ends up winning the most support. After being twice burned by Jeremy Corbyn’s overwhelming victories, the more centrist factions of the Labour party will hope that in the upcoming contest they end up on the winning side of a leadership election.

Our data suggests that they may have a better chance than in the previous two summers’ national votes. In last year’s contest, Scottish members were noticeably less “Corbynista” than the rest of the UK. YouGov’s data indicates that while England and Wales were both overwhelmingly in favour of Jeremy Corbyn, Scotland favoured the challenger, Owen Smith.

Furthermore, party members in Scotland are slightly more centrist than their English and Welsh counterparts, with over a quarter (27%) describing themselves as “slightly left of centre” compared to 20% in England and Wales.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/09/13/why-labour-centrists-stand-better-chance-scotland/

This polling falls foul of the usual problems of small Scottish subsamples, but it's all there is at the moment (other than some other recent routine polls that show Labour stubbornly stuck in third place in Scotland).

If there's been any noticeable "Corbyn effect" in Scotland, it seems to have been more reflected in an increase in membership of the Campaign for Socialism (established in 1994, nowadays allied with Momentum) than an increase in Labour membership.

So the outcome of the Scottish Labour leadership election (currently between two uninspiring candidates whose supporters are already engaged in heated media and social media campaigns to discredit the other) hinges on entryism, and what membership time limits will be set for being eligible to vote in it, between now and 18 November, when the election will be held.