"Our value - as an ally of America - will decline. No "ifs", no "buts": we will be less relevant."

[JHan]

I have made no false promises about Brexit that I must pretend can still be honoured, even though – in my heart – I know they cannot. I am free to say absolutely and precisely what I believe about Brexit. And it is this:

I understand the motives of those who voted to leave the European Union: it can – as I well know – be very frustrating. Nonetheless, after weighing its frustrations and opportunities, there is no doubt in my own mind that our decision is a colossal misjudgment that will diminish both the UK and the EU. It will damage our national and personal wealth, and may seriously hamper our future security. It may even, over time, break up our United Kingdom. It will most definitely limit the prospects of our young.

And – once this becomes clear – I believe those who promised what will never be delivered will have much to answer for. They persuaded a deceived population to vote to be weaker and poorer. That will never be forgotten – nor forgiven.

Our domestic focus is on the impact leaving Europe will have on the UK. That is quite natural, but, to the world at large, the bigger question is how the EU itself will be affected. The answer is – badly. Without the UK the balance of the EU changes. The free market majority may be at risk: protectionists will be encouraged and, perhaps, empowered.

The UK will no longer be a buffer between the Franco-German steamroller and smaller nations. Germany will be more isolated, and friction may grow. “So what?” committed Brexiteers say. “We won’t be members: it’s Europe’s problem.” But that ignores reality. How can it not be our problem, too?

Whether we are “in” or “out” the EU is in our neighbourhood; it is our predominant economic partner and our wellbeing is inexorably linked to their own wellbeing. In the hot heat of debate it should not be forgotten that we ignore the EU, disdain it, or stand aside from it, at our own risk.

- John Major