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muriel_volestrangler

(102,642 posts)
10. While that's possible, I think they'll also hurt the Tories in many constituencies
Sat Jun 29, 2019, 07:37 AM
Jun 2019

Since the Peterborough by-election, it's pretty much been a 4 way tie between Con, Lab, Lib Dem and Brexit:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

Looking at the details of the most recent:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qqv5xpbu20/TheTimes_190625_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

we see that the Lib Dems are doing well enough in the South of England to start taking Tory seats when their vote is split by Brexit. Labour still has a lead in the North; they should be able to hold on to any university city there, and while they may lose some seats, they may take some there too thanks to the Tory/Brexit split. The SNP should clean up in Scotland with the opposition fragmented.

If there's either an unofficial pact between Labour and the Lib Dems, by putting their efforts into the regions they are strongest in, or their voters produce the same effect with significant tactical voting, they may do OK. The Tories and Farage have the chance to do the same, but I reckon Farage's ego is too much to organise that, and it's hard for voters to work out what is tactical with one party not having stood in a constituency before.

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